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NBA Expert Picks: Odds & Predictions for 2024-25 NBA Win Totals
NBA Expert Picks: Odds & Predictions for 2024-25 NBA Win Totals
NBA Expert Pick: Denver Nuggets: O/U 50.5 Wins at FanDuel
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Last week, when discussing which team that I thought presented value to win this year’s NBA Championship, the Denver Nuggets were my selection. For my favorite win total bet of the season, I’m sticking with the Nuggets once again.
Similar to my handicap for the championship pick: I believe the Nuggets are being slightly overlooked heading into this season. They underperformed during their last playoff run, exiting early in the second round. I believe part of that premature departure can likely be attributed to them enduring a championship hangover.
This season, they’ll come in with extra motivation and a chip on their shoulder, eager to prove they’re still among the NBA’s elite.
No, they didn’t necessarily make any big offseason moves, I mean, they did add Russell Westbrook, but we know the sentiment that looms around his addition to new teams. Nevertheless, Denver lacks bench depth, and despite his age, Westbrook can still provide a spark off the bench.
Two years ago, the Nuggets finished with 53 wins en route to their championship, and last year, they improved to 57 wins. Yet their win total for this season is set as low as 50.5 at some books. FanDuel even offers a plus price on the over 50.5, while other books list it at 51.5 with a slight juice toward the over.
Last year, Denver ranked fourth in efficiency differential and finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive points per 100 possessions, as well as effective field goal percentage. The public often overlooks teams that aren’t flashy, didn’t make a splash in free agency, and don’t get much national attention. For bettors, that creates value, and I’m ready to take advantage of it.
NBA Expert Pick: Denver Nuggets Over 50.5 Wins +108 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick: Philadelphia 76ers O/U 49.5 Wins at DraftKings
The Philadelphia 76ers are not a serious basketball team. They just aren’t. With Joel Embiid pledging to take every back-to-back off, they’re likely to struggle without rest, especially now that it’s Andre Drummond serving as the backup. Plus, Embiid is already missing time with an injury, and big-name offseason acquisition Paul George is already out, too.
To be fair, I like some of Philadelphia’s role players. Guerschon Yabusele, Caleb Martin, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Eric Gordon will all provide value on the wings. I also am a huge fan of point guard Tyrese Maxey. However, the depth at guard is very sketchy, with Kyle Lowry and Reggie Jackson the next-best options at the one.
But it’s ultimately the top-level players that make me skeptical of Philadelphia. Embiid won’t come close to playing the full season. George is already hurt. Maxey, while springy and young, cannot carry the load he’ll need to when everyone else is out.
This team won 47 games last season and is pretty much just running it back with George swapping in for Tobias Harris and some swapped-around role players. I don’t think that they got three wins better, especially with Embiid now pledging to sit out so many games, and I’m a huge fan of the under 49.5 wins for -105 at DraftKings.
NBA Expert Pick: Philadelphia 76ers Under 49.5 Wins -105 at DraftKings
