The NBA Finals roll on, and the Boston Celtics have a chance to put away the Dallas Mavericks with a win tonight. No NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in a seven-game series, so the Mavericks will have to make history if they want to pull this off. Let’s dive into our NBA NBA +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Celtics-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions: NBA Finals Game 4
NBA Celtics-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions for NBA Finals Game 4
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Celtics-Mavericks Odds
Odds via DraftKings
DAL ML: -110 | BOS ML: -110
DAL -1: -105 | BOS +1: -115
Over 211: -110 | Under 211: -110
Celtics-Mavericks Picks & Predictions
@Loughy_D – Jrue Holiday O/U 10.5 R&A: Holiday is playing 40-plus minutes in competitive games, which will give him plenty of time to clear this number against the Dallas Mavericks tonight — assuming things don’t get out of hand early.
Holiday has gone over 10.5 rebounds and assists in eight of his last 10 games, but that’s less important than some of what we’ve seen in the finals thus far.
Through three games, Holiday is averaging 9.7 potential assists and 14.7 rebound chances, which leads every player in the series. The opportunities to rack up the counting stats should be there for him again on Friday night.
NBA Finals Game 4 Expert Pick & Prediction: Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 Rebounds & Assists -106 at FanDuel
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Al Horford O/U 16.5 P&R: If there were ever a spot that the Boston Celtics could give some rest to veteran big man Al Horford this series, it’s Game 4. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable, and, per head coach Joe Mazzulla, will test his leg in pregame warmups. I still doubt he plays, but even if he doesn’t, the Celtics have options other than Horford.
Xavier Tillman Sr. played 11 excellent minutes off the bench in Game 3, recording three points, four rebounds and two blocks. He finished at +9. Meanwhile, Horford tallied only eight points and five rebounds in his 37 minutes before finishing at -2.
, Game 3 was on Wednesday, giving both sides just one night off. Horford is 38 years old. He never played in a back-to-back this year, and on one night of rest, he averaged 14.2 combined points and rebounds, down from his season average of 15. Tonight, his points and rebounds total is… 16.5?
Horford has stayed under 16.5 points and rebounds in all but five of his 17 playoff appearances this year, including all but one of his appearances this series. While the splits without Porzingis paint a different picture, Horford still only went over three times in 11 playoff games without him. I’m stunned we’re getting Horford to stay under 16.5 for -118 at DraftKings tonight, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
NBA Finals Game 4 Expert Pick & Prediction: Al Horford Under 16.5 Points & Rebounds -118 at DraftKings
@shanderbets – Player Prop – Jayson Tatum O/U 9.5 RBD: Despite a commanding 3-0 series lead, Jayson Tatum has been relatively quiet — at least with baseline expectations.
One area that hasn’t turned around is the rebound market: he finished below the 9.5 for the second -straight game against Dallas in Game 3. We’re this under at +110, which beats the rest of the market and the +104 true odds.
The Celtics haven’t needed Tatum to do much on the glass, and that shouldn’t change in a closeout scenario. Tatum has played 42-plus minutes in each of the three games, including a 45-minute Game 2 in which he finished with 9 boards. Look for him to stay under again tonight.
NBA Finals Game 4 Expert Pick & Prediction: Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds +110 at DraftKings
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