The NBA Finals head to Texas as the Dallas Mavericks look to avoid a deadly 0-3 start. They’ll need Kyrie Irving to get it together after his forgettable Games 1 and 2. But will they manage a win — or will the Celtics end tonight just one win away from a championship? Let’s dive into our NBA NBA +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Celtics-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions: NBA Finals Game 3
NBA Celtics-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions for NBA Finals Game 3
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Celtics-Mavericks Odds
Odds via DraftKings
DAL ML: -148 | BOS ML: +124
DAL -3: -108 | BOS +3: -112
Over 213.5: -108 | Under 213.5: -112
Celtics-Mavericks Picks & Predictions
@jazzrazdfs – 1H Spread – DAL -2.5: It’s a fascinating Game 3 here as the Mavericks head home and absolutely need a win. They couldn’t have shot worse from three in Games 1 and 2, and that has to change tonight. Kyrie Irving must be better, as he is shooting 0% from 3 and has been a non-factor in the first two games.
The home crowd certainly should have an impact, and with Kristaps Porzingis’ status unknown, the Boston’s depth could be tested. It’s going to be a tough ask for the Mavericks to win four out of five, but I believe this first half is crucial for them to set the tone tonight.
I expect a super-aggressive Dallas attack and think they start quick tonight. This line has taken money, but it still sits at -2.5 at some books, which, at -110, is still a line I’m willing to attack.
NBA Finals Game 3 Expert Pick & Prediction: Mavericks 1H -2.5 -110 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Luka Doncic O/U 32.5 PTS: The Boston Celtics have to play this one on the road — and likely without Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics are now trading as 2.5-to-3.5-point underdogs, which doesn’t really make that much sense to me. Sure, it’s functionally a do-or-die game for Dallas, but do we really think they’re up to the task of dethroning this Boston team?
Dallas’ odds will come down, as they usually do, to whether they get a superhuman performance from star Luka Doncic. Doncic dropped 30 in Game 1 and 32 in Game 2. His points prop is now trading at 32.5, a number he has cleared in just five of his last 20 games and in four of his 19 playoff starts.
It might feel wrong to fade Doncic in this spot, but there are plenty of good reasons to do so. For one, Doncic’s shooting splits of 51/38/46 are mostly on pace with what we saw him produce in the regular season (49/38/79), with him shooting slightly better from the field and much worse from the stripe.
For another, the NBA Finals have been really slow. Through Game 2, the average pace was 93.8, far slower than the pace Doncic and the Mavericks played at during the regular season (100.6). Sure, an increase in playing time offsets the slower pace somewhat, but there just aren’t that many chances for Doncic to score. Let’s hold our breath and back him to stay under 32.5 points tonight.
NBA Finals Game 3 Expert Pick & Prediction: Luka Doncic Under 32.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
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