We love shopping odds here at OddsShopper (who would have thunk it?), and that lets us get you top betting value by digging for the edges the market provides. For today, shopping has pointed us to Pelicans-Heat, specifically a Jimmy Butler player prop from BetRivers.
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Jimmy Butler Player Prop: Best Pelicans-Heat Bet
Pelicans-Heat Player Prop: Jimmy Butler O/U 5.5 Rebounds
We often talk about discrepancies between sportsbook lines and/or odds in this space, but for this play it’s pretty egregious. Butler’s rebounding line is 5.5 industrywide, but the odds are all over the place. Sharp book Pinnacle set the under at -142, for reference.
Meanwhile, BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse have this under at -109, and FanDuel is the next closest at a whopping -124. That is a huge gap between the books with the best odds and the one with the next best. Plus, FanDuel is actually very slightly +EV since the OddsShopper True Odds on this under are -125. BetRivers at -109 is crushing the market in that regard.
At 6.5% expected value, this is the top prop on the NBA board as of this early afternoon, and the 56% win expectancy is strong for a bet that’s a hair below even money.
Butler’s season average of 5.4 is basically in line with the 5.5 number, but he has also been dealing with injury and has only gotten to six boards once in his last four.
Plus, despite being a pace up, the Pelicans are an above-average rebounding team. The Heat, while pretty injured, are really only missing one key rebounder in Kevin Love. The value is good on the under, and the game situation trends towards Butler falling shy of 5.5 boards.
Pelicans-Heat Player Prop: Jimmy Butler Under 5.5 Rebounds (-109 at BetRivers)
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