Game 2 of Mavericks-Timberwolves was a banger, no two ways about it. We missed our parlay, but we have another great value spot to attack with a Parlay Builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Bet365 Parlay With Dereck Lively II & More
Leg #1: Mike Conley Under 5.5 Assists
Another fade on Conley’s assists paid off on Friday, and now his line has dropped one down to 5.5.
Even that number has been a tricky over for Conley lately, however. Again, Anthony Edwards is taking over as the Timberwolves lead playmaker, especially in the absence of his shot — he has four games of seven-plus assists in his last five and shot a miserable 33.7% in that stretch.
That has affected Conley two-fold: One, Edwards is now the guy dishing to teammates more often, and two, Edwards’ cold shooting has removed a reliable assist target.
As a result, despite Conley’s assist line dropping, the under on it has a little bit of juice -120. That is still below the True Odds, though, so it’s a +EV play for our Timberwolves-Mavericks parlay.
Like I said Friday, Minnesota is a hot shooting night away from getting Conley back on track. As it’s looked, this seems to be the trend until Edwards starts making some shots.
OddsShopper gives Conley a 55% chance of staying below 5.5 assists. That only makes this play 0.8% +EV on its own, but it is still positive and has a decent win rate to help get our parlay chances up a bit.
Leg #2: Dereck Lively II Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
This leg is the main source of value for our SGP since the -105 odds give the bet 3.9% expected value. It may look hairy on paper given what Lively has been doing lately, but OddsShopper is feeling pretty good about the under’s chances, giving it a 53% expected win rate.
Lively is obviously doing great stuff for Dallas. He is playing 25-plus minutes consistently and is filling up the stat sheet, recording nine-plus rebounds in four straight and double-digit points in three of the last four. All four of those games led to overs on this points + rebounds + assists line of 17.5.
So where is the under value coming from? Well, we are expecting some regression from Lively, somewhere in the 8-point, seven-rebound range in the projections. There is also some expectation of Minnesota’s shooting leveling out at least a little bit better than the 42% the team is shooting in the first two games. That would obviously create fewer rebound opportunities for Lively.
A lot may come down to Luka Doncic’s status as well. Doncic is probably going to play, but he is questionable and could be hobbled. If he does play, Lively’s under will look better. If he is limited, the over may get a bit more value — stay tuned to reports on Doncic.
As it stands, taking the under on Lively’s PRA is the value play, giving us a total parlay value of 4.4% at bet365 (the only book where this Wolves-Mavs SGP is +EV) and a solid expected win rate of 29%.
NBA Parlay Today: +257 at bet365
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