Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today: Desperate T-Wolves Must Blitz Luka

Doncic demolished his previous career high by making 4.1 3’s a game in the regular season. He also made four or more in a whopping 61.4% of games.

And yet, OddsShopper gives Doncic a 57% chance of falling shy of 3.5 3’s, and that bet is +EV despite a little spot of juice at -123. How did this happen?

Well, a few things are factoring in. Doncic has actually been slightly more prone to the under than the over this postseason, going over in only 42.9% of games. He has also lost some shooting efficiency, down to 30.6% from deep and 2.8 makes per game.

There is also the matter of the Timberwolves not yet showing the defensive dominance against the Mavericks that they did in four of the seven games against Denver.

Now, one could argue Minnesota is specifically built to beat the Nuggets, not Dallas. Thus, the defense may not translate. I say bollocks — this is the best defensive team in the NBA for a reason.

The Timberwolves have adjusted gameplans well all postseason, and they can find at least a modicum of solution to at least slow down this aspect of Doncic’s game.