We have NBA action! Yes, it’s only a three game slate but that doesn’t translate to a lack of value. The OddsShopper NBA betting model is on fire right now, and is pumping out two more must-bets for today. So, with excitement, let’s get to our best NBA player prop bets today without hesitation!
The day starts with the Celtics in New Orleans and ends with the Hawks hosting the Bucks. The Magic are 13 point home favorites against the Grizzlies to hold you over. Let’s look at the top NBA plays thanks to the OddsShopper betting model!
To gain access to my picks in real-time, ensuring you get the best odds, subscribe to NBA betting promos!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaren Jackson & More
Jaren Jackson Player Prop
The season is long over for the Memphis Grizzlies as they look to be the latest victims to fall in Orlando. The volatility for Jackson to score has coincided with the chaos this year in Memphis. While we see flashes at times from J3, the consistent level of scoring to take it to the next level remains absent.
This is a ridiculously tough matchup both individually and team-wise for Jackson, mainly with the physical play and slower tempo by Orlando’s front court. While he dropped 30 on Orlando the last time these two teams played, much has changed since – especially with Orlando.
Even with that offensive explosion against the Magic, we see a 21.5 point total for today’s game. It’s more a reflection of the slide we see for both the Grizz and one of their top players. This isn’t even a case of volume, which can be a major factor in playing an under – be it points or made threes.
Jackson is just missing shots. He’s taking some bad ones, forced no doubt, but he just finished with 17 points off 16 shots against the Lakers. Not good. The Magic will look vastly improved on the defensive end against JJJ, and we love what OddsShopper has for us.
The true odds for JJJ to finish under 21.5 points are -127 off OddsShopper. Thanks to our betting model, we find this at -109 on BetRivers- a clear advantage over the market price. Beat the market, beat every other book, and build a bank roll over time.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 21.5 Points -109 at BetRivers
Trey Murphy III Player Prop
The game of the day is clearly the Pelicans hosting the unstoppable Boston Celtics. Playoff seeding is alive and well for the Pels, but Boston is pretty comfortable leading the East. Trey Murphy is charged with grabbing 6 boards to hit the over on his prop – not easy against Boston’s front court and wings. He comes off a monster 11 board game so naturally this line is a tad inflated – even if only by one rebound.
Over the month of March, Murphy is about 1.5 boards above his season average, also helping to inflate this line. This is a crazy difficult game for Murphy based on position and usage. He’s going to need to out rebound Boston’s wings, and deal with a lurking Jayson Tatum. These are matchup issues that also provide a good reasoning to hit the under.
The last time these two teams played Boston limited Murphy on the glass to the tune of just four rebounds. While we’ve seen a recent spike from Murphy, it’s against easier matchups. This one won’t allow him to roam and crash boards, as Boston will suffocate the Pelicans wings. It’s probably a good day to target a Jonas Valanciunas, but we are wise to stay away from anything over for Murphy.
We see on OddsShopper the true odds are +112 and we get a massive break on DraftKings. We are taking the Under 5.5 Rebounds at +124 and beating the market, along with every other book. That’s the first step in creating long term profit.
If you haven’t signed up for 20% off your first month ($39.96) or week ($11.96) with promo code “SHANDER”. That’s far less expensive than the +EV tools that our competitors are offering, even after the discount ends!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Trey Murphy Under 25.5 PRA -115 at Hard Rock
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
