The walking-wounded New York Knicks have their hands full in Indianapolis, and the Indiana Pacers smell blood. Game 4 is a huge one for this series; as such, I’ve found a prop bet that is worth some action, thanks to NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Knicks-Pacers
Aaron Nesmith Player Prop
Aaron Nesmith gets 35 to 40 minutes a game to do a couple things quite well: Run to the 3-point line and be kind of annoying defensively while he guards three out of five positions on the floor. What is not asked of him much is playmaking, as evidenced by his 1.5 assists per game in the regular season.
Now, that has ticked up to 2.4 in the playoffs, but a lot of that came from a seven-assist outlier in Game 2 against Milwaukee. Since then, he has had four games of one assist and three with multiple. All told, Nesmith had 30 games of at least two assists this year and 42 with one or zero.
As for the market, bet365 has this down to -105, so anything over a 50% expected win rate is going to be a profitable bet in the long term. OddsShopper has Nesmith under 1.5 assists winning 55% of the time, thus giving it an expected value rating of +6.7% to lead all NBA player props today.
bet365 has some limited state availability, but if you live in one of the 10 bet365 legal states, you’re looking real pretty here.
Don’t forget: Just because Nesmith may go on an assist binge tonight does not make this a bad bet. The results with OddsShopper’s model prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run when you take these +EV bets.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Aaron Nesmith live odds page!
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