After yesterday’s not-so-good performance, I’m back today with NBA player prop picks for Deandre Ayton, Jarrett Allen and Damian Lillard. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to expert picks page), my NBA cards this year sit at +18.4u.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Damian Lillard & More
Deandre Ayton Player Prop
My NBA player prop betting process is simple: check the schedule, check the injury report, check OddsShopper and do some research on my own. Today, a pick near the top of the board caught my eye, and, after some quick research, I quickly committed a full unit to it. We’re fading Deandre Ayton on the glass tonight versus the Los Angeles Clippers.
Thinking here is that Ayton is averaging only 11.2 boards per game this year on 16.6 rebounding chances. Those numbers jump to 14.3 and 22.4 per game since the All-Star Break, but with a possible double-digit loss in the cards tonight, that volume should regress toward his season average. It helps that Ayton averages only 10.2 rebounds per game versus Ivica Zubac, clearing the 13 rebound mark just once in 13 meetings.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the odds across the market; adjusts for several factors, including hold, book sharpness and more; and generates a breakeven price for each bet. When a bet has longer odds at a sportsbook than the breakeven price, it’s time to pounce, which is exactly what we see with this Ayton wager:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll (16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 12.5 Rebounds -110 at DraftKings
Jarrett Allen Player Prop
Editor’s Note (3/20/24 at 6 p.m. ET): Bam Adebayo was ruled OUT after the publication of this story.
The shorthanded Cleveland Cavaliers draw the Miami Heat tonight. It’s a tough matchup for both sides, but Bam Adebayo is available and Jimmy Butler could be back. The Cavs will remain without Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell, forcing Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland into larger roles, possibly allowing the Heat to focus on shutting them down.
Miami’s stingy interior defense is an issue for paint-reliant bigs like Allen. The Heat have allowed the second-fewest points in the paint per game since the All-Star Break (43.4) to go with the second-fewest made field goals allowed in the restricted area (14.5). A whopping 72.3% of Allen’s made field goals have come in the restricted area.
I was excited about fading Allen as a scorer today — his points prop (16.5) is trading above his season average (16.2) and his average against Adebayo with the Cavs (9.5) — but I also noticed his rebounding prop (11.5) popping in the model. We can get him to stay under 28.5 points and rebounds, giving slightly more breathing room, for odds of -120 only at DraftKings.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jarrett Allen Under 28.5 Points & Rebounds -120 at DraftKings
Damian Lillard Player Prop
Damian Lillard and the shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks must play the Boston Celtics tonight. It’s a tough spot for Milwaukee, as they have another game scheduled for tomorrow (versus the Brooklyn Nets, so it’s more winnable). They’re also 10 games behind the Celtics for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, so it’s not like making a run at the C’s is all that likely.
We’re fading Lillard as a er today. Although Giannis Antetokounmpo has already been downgraded to out, which will likely lead Lillard to play a larger role as a ball-hander, the veteran guard has only eclipsed the 7.5-assist mark in two of his four games without his superstar teammate. He tallied 13 assists versus Toronto and 16 versus Phoenix but was held to five by Cleveland and four by the LA Clippers.
The Bucks are sizeable dogs to the Celtics today despite Boston’s long list of injuries. Still, the Celtics are allowing the sixth-fewest assists per game on the year (24.8) and the sixth-fewest to point guards (8.2), so I’m eagerly fading Lillard against his total of 7.5 assists. Lillard has nine total assists in two starts versus Boston this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 7.5 Assists +105 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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