Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Tuesday, April 23

The Phoenix Suns will look to get revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves after a brutal Game 1 loss tonight. Shooting guard Grayson Allen (questionable) is looking to bounce back from an ankle sprain and a tough four-point showing, but I think he can do it. Allen was seen getting shots up at Monday’s shootaround, but it’s still unclear whether he’ll suit up. If he does, I love his over.

For as clownable as Allen’s Game 1 performance was, he did get good looks. He attempted three field goals — all from beyond the arc — and none of which were contested. If you give Allen three open 3’s again, he’ll cook you. Allen led the NBA in 3-point percentage this season (46.1%). He converted 62.5% of his 3’s against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the regular season, shooting 10-for-16 while averaging 19 points per game.

While some may worry about the potential lack of volume in the playoffs for Allen, as he does have to share the floor with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker, his regular-season usage rate wasn’t abysmal alongside those guys. With Booker, it clocked in at 14.7%; with Beal, 14.6%; with Durant, 14.5%. He’ll get his. A bounce-back showing in Game 2 should be in the cards.

If you back Harden to stay under the 19.5 for Caesars (-127) are charging a lot more for it, and our model projects the true odds (a breakeven price) to be -125.

By using +EV like this one every day. We know this is a +EV bet because of how the model works — it indexes the odds across the market; adjusts for book sharpness, hold and more; and generates the aforementioned true odds, which the -110 clears by a wide margin.

When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, it’s a +EV bet! Wagers like this one, when placed over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll just as the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.

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