Let’s go! After yesterday’s 3-0 showing, we’re now riding a 20-4 streak since last Monday in this column. We haven’t had a net-losing day in almost two weeks in this space, and I’m hoping to stay hot with tonight’s NBA player prop picks. I’ve got action down on Stephen Curry, Julius Randle and Deandre Ayton in this spot. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Julius Randle Player Prop
The Detroit Pistons aren’t a tough matchup for star forward Julius Randle, but that’s exactly why we’re fading him in this spot. The Pistons are coming off a 26-point beatdown at the hands of the Los Angeles Lakers last night, so they won’t have much time to adjust before this game. Meanwhile, the Knicks are heading into a back-to-back set, as they’ll visit the Toronto Raptors tomorrow. As a result, I don’t expect head coach Tom Thibodeau to leave his stars on the floor for more than 30 minutes tonight.
Randle has put together some decent showings lately (even cashing a small ladder bet for us against Charlotte on Tuesday), but it’s time to fade him. He is still averaging only 19.9 points per game on shooting splits of 40/28/71. Those are unsustainably bad numbers for Randle, but they prove that he is more than capable of coming out completely flat. Against a Pistons team featuring reasonable frontcourt defenders like Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, Randle’s poor shooting could become a major issue.
We faded LeBron James against the Pistons last night for similar reasons, and he stayed under his line of 39.5 points, rebounds and assists. We’re just fading Randle on the points market in this spot because Detroit’s defense, while not great, is 23rd in defensive rating (117.2) and ninth in points allowed per game to power forwards (21.6), largely because of their decent options in the frontcourt. The Pistons allow only the 16th-most made shots per game in the restricted area (17), a zone from which Randle leads the Knicks in shot attempts and converts 54.8% of his looks. We’re also getting action on the under because you’ll find it priced at -111 on FanDuel but -122 on Pinnacle, a sharp book.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
The Portland Trail Blazers will visit the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, and I don’t expect anything from Deandre Ayton. The center takes 3.3 shots per game in the restricted area and 4.6 in the non-restricted paint. The Cavaliers allow the seventh-fewest and 18th-fewest made shots per game in those zones, along with the ninth-fewest points in the paint (46.1). Ayton scored just six points in 26 minutes when he last faced Cleveland. Aside from Ayton’s tough matchup, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 13.5 Points -110 at SuperBook The Golden State Warriors lost point guard Chris Paul to an injury on Tuesday, and that will thrust both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green into higher-volume roles as ers moving forward. Heading into tonight’s action, Curry ranks third on the Dubs in es made (44.1), assists (4.1) and potential assists (7.6) on a per-game basis. Paul had been averaging 50.9, 7.4 and 15.4, respectively. Paul’s early exit from Golden State’s last game gives us some insight into Curry’s new (well, old) role. He ranked second on the Dubs in both es made (51) and potential assists (10) but notched six actual assists. With Green’s propensity for getting caught in foul trouble, Curry is a slightly safer play on the assist markets — especially at the price some of the books are selling. But before we dive into the odds, let’s just remind ourselves of Curry’s ing production last year. The guard ranked second on the Dubs in es made (51.6), assists (5.8) and potential assists (10). Across two meetings with the Clippers, Curry tallied nine and six assists. He is averaging 4.8 assists per game against them since the start of the 2021-22 season. You’ll find Curry priced at only -150, or 60%, to tally five assists on Thursday night. While that makes sense given his minimal assist production this year, Chris Paul appeared alongside him in every one of his starts this year. Trust him to cash the over today — and consider laddering him as well. NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Assists -150 at DraftKings Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.Deandre Ayton Player Prop
Stephen Curry Player Prop
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