It was a profitable Wednesday for this article, as we cashed bets for Damian Lillard and Deandre Ayton, losing only a Jarrett Allen bet I wouldn’t have taken if Bam Adebayo weren’t supposed to have been playing. Today, I’m back with NBA player prop picks for Jalen Brunson, Zion Williamson and Jalen Suggs. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to expert picks page), my NBA cards this year sit at +17.6u.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Brunson & More
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
Every morning, I take the following steps when placing my NBA player prop bets: I check the schedule, check the injury report, check OddsShopper and do some research on my own. A few picks near the top of the board stood out, and after some running some numbers, I’m all over this Jalen Brunson under today. We’re getting him at odds of +108 to stay under 5.5 assists on the road versus the Denver Nuggets.
I like fading Brunson as a er for a handful of reasons, including Denver’s defense, which has allowed the sixth-fewest assists per game to point guards over the last seven (6.9) and the last 15 (7.6). I also like this under because Brunson’s assist average drops from seven per game at home to 5.9 on the road. He has topped this number once in four tries when playing in Denver since the 2020-21 campaign.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It takes the betting odds from across the market; adjusts based on hold, book sharpness and more; and uses that information to produce the breakeven odds for each bet. When we can find that bet trading at a sportsbook for longer odds than the breakeven price, we attack, which is exactly what we see with this Brunson wager:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll (16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 5.5 Assists +108 at Caesars
Zion Williamson Player Prop
Zion Williamson had two bets popping in the model when I first checked — the unders for both his assists (4.5) and points (22.5) were rendering with some positive expected value (+EV) at certain books. But instead of playing either, I recommend combining them to play the under points and assists (27.5) for marginal extra breathing room at no cost.
Williamson depends on his interior scoring and doesn’t dish out many assists. Unfortunately for him, today’s opponent, the Orlando Magic, doesn’t roll over in the paint. The Magic have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game since the All-Star Break (44.3).
Importantly, the Magic cause problems both in the restricted area, where they have allowed the 10th-fewest made field goals per game since the ASB (16.5) and the non-restricted paint, where they have allowed the fourth-fewest (5.6). Williamson takes 62.4% of his shots in the former zone and 32.7% in the latter zone.
Oh, and what about assists? Good luck getting them versus Orlando. The Magic have allowed the fewest assists per game this year (23.9) and the third-fewest since the ASB (23.6). Over the last 15 games, they have allowed the eighth-fewest assists to power forwards (3.7) to go with the third-fewest points (18.3).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Zion Williamson Under 27.5 Points & Assists -110 at Fanatics
Jalen Suggs Player Prop
It isn’t every day that you see overs popping with so much +EV, especially since public books know that public bettors love betting on overs. Why do you think some sites don’t let you place same-game parlays with unders in them? But today’s different: this Jalen Suggs bet stood out with +EV in our model for the current asking price on DraftKings.
We’re backing Suggs to go over 2.5 assists for -105. Sure, Suggs is averaging only 2.6 assists per game this year, but that number has ticked up to 3.4 since the ASB. He has beaten this number in 30 of his 62 appearances on the season and (48.3%) in eight of his 12 since the ASB (66.7%). With this bet trading at odds of -105 (48.8%), we’re just barely trailing his raw regular-season hit rate.
Some matchup-based factors point to value here as well. The Pels rank a pedestrian 14th in assists allowed per game this year (26.6) and rank 24th in assists allowed per game to both point guards (9.1), where Suggs has started to see more minutes, and shooting guards (5.5). New Orleans has even allowed the most assists per game to point guards over the last 15 contests (10.8).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 Assists -105 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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