We wrapped up the Conference Finals last week with a 2-0 sweep, cashing an Anthony Edwards over and a Mike Conley under, bringing us to a dominant 12-3 for the NBA’s penultimate round. We’re onto the NBA Finals, which are a whole different beast, as we look to sustain our 80% win rate. Let’s see if I can stay hot with the two NBA player prop picks I’ve dug up with the help of NBA +EV betting tools for Mavericks-Celtics Game 1.
Use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kristaps Porzingis & More
P.J. Washington Player Prop
It wasn’t long ago that P.J. Washington ripped off three-straight games with 20-plus points against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He then cooled off down the stretch of that series and remained cool during the Western Conference Finals. We’re backing him to stay cool tonight.
Washington has a basic shot profile: in the postseason, he has taken 2.6 above-the-break and 4 corner 3’s per game to go with 2.3 shots in the restricted area and 1.9 shots in the non-restricted paint. No player has taken more or made more corner 3’s in the postseason than Washington.
Unfortunately for him, the Boston Celtics don’t give up much from the corner. Boston has allowed 1.5 corner 3’s per game on 25% shooting this postseason. The Celtics have also limited opposing teams to just 14 made shots in the restricted area per game.
If the Celtics can limit Washington’s production from the corner and at the rim, he doesn’t have much left in his bag. Washington has converted just 29.5% of his shots from above the break and 39.4 of his shots from the non-restricted paint. Let’s fade Washington by backing him to stay under 12.5 points at DraftKings.
NBA Player Prop Pick: P.J. Washington points live odds page!
Kristaps Porzingis Player Prop
Let’s turn to what our NBA player prop betting model recommends targeting tonight. With Kristaps Porzingis making his return to the lineup and a minutes restriction possible, it wants action on his under. Porzingis averaged 20.1 points per game in the regular season but is averaging only 12.3 per game in the playoffs (over a four-game sample, including the 14-minute performance in which he got hurt).
Still, some public books are looking to take advantage of the Porzingis hype by pricing his over at a juicy number — thereby creating value on the under. Specifically, positive expected value (+EV) of any NBA bet on the board:
As you can see, the under 16.5 will cost you between -138 and -165 at every other public book. The under 15.5 will cost between -115 and -125, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -123. We’re essentially getting a free point of value for the same odds at Pinnacle.
The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.
Our tools have found 79 +EV NBA player points bets at Caesars this year with (a) two hours before the start of a game and (b) an OS Rating of 3 or better. A whopping 48 of those bets won, good for a 25.6% ROI. Let’s hope the tools keep winning at that rate and tail this bet today.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kristaps Porzingis points live odds page!
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