We did it — we swept the board yesterday, cashing an over for Sam Ha and unders for Trey Murphy III and Jayson Tatum. Can we run back the sweep tonight? No promises, but I think we can pull it off, especially with us back to a three-game slate. I’ve identified four spots worth getting a unit on with the help of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jamal Murray & More
Max Strus Player Prop
We bet on Max Strus in Game 2 and were disappointed, as he managed just seven points. But his minutes actually picked up, and I have all the faith in the world that he’ll clear an even more discounted points total (8.5). It certainly helps that we’re getting the over at the friendly price of -105 on Hard Rock.
Strus shot 37.5% from the floor in Game 1 and 28.6% in Game 2. He shot 41.8% in the regular season, and last year, he shot 40.2% in the postseason. Now it would be fair to argue that increased defensive attention could explain Strus’ inefficient shooting, but we know that’s not the case — Strus converted only 33.3% of his uncontested field goals in Game 1 and 20% in Game 2.
It’s absurd for a 40%-plus shooter to go this ice cold when taking uncontested looks in the playoffs. Something has to give, and the Magic will likely let Strus take whatever shots he wants until he figures things out, which I expect him to do at some point tonight. The journeyman wing averaged 12.2 points per game in the regular season and cleared the 8.5 in 49 of his 72 (68%) starts this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Max Strus Over 8.5 Points -105 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Max Strus points live odds page!
Jamal Murray Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets scored two backbreaking comeback wins over the Los Angeles Lakers in Games 1 and 2, but now the series heads to L.A., and the Nuggets are underdogs. Star guard Jamal Murray did plenty of damage as a scorer in both wins, but he also dished out 15 total assists on 30 total potential assists. That production is way higher than his regular-season rates, and both myself and our positive expected value (+EV):
Murray will cost you +110 at DraftKings to stay under 6.5 assists, but you’ll find the same bet trading for odds of +105 or worse just about everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same wager priced at a stingy -118, and our model projects the breakeven price to be +101.
How does the model work? It indexes the odds from across the market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and more; and generates the aforementioned true odds, which the +110 at DraftKings clears by a wide enough margin for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $19.
By using the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
For more picks, sign up for guide to using +EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murary assists live odds page!
Kyle Lowry Player Prop
The New York Knicks are up 2-0 over the Philadelphia 76ers, but Joel Embiid and company are expected to get one back tonight as the 76ers are 5.5-point home favorites. One key to a win this evening will be getting Kyle Lowry going as a facilitator. The veteran point guard averaged 4.6 assists per game in the regular season but is averaging only 2.5 in the postseason.
Lowry’s downtick in production is partially due to the return of Joel Embiid, but bad luck also has something to do with it. In the regular season (post-All Star Break), Lowry averaged 4.5 actual on 8.4 potential assists per game, converting at a clip of 53.5%. In the playoffs, he has averaged just 2.5 actual on 7.5 potential assists, meaning his conversion rate has fallen to only 33.3%.
New York’s defense deserves some credit, but Lowry should have more assists. He played three regular-season games against the Knicks, all without Embiid, and tallied assist totals of five, three and six, clearing the 2.5 we’re able to buy him at in every game. Although I’m uncertain how the 76ers will distribute minutes tonight, if Lowry continues to play the role we’ve seen him play this series, he should easily sur the 2.5-assist mark.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Lowry assists live odds page!
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