Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Sunday, April 21

On the one hand, Giddey has been lighting it up on the boards as of late, even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup, which has limited Giddey’s need to have the ball as much to reach 26 points + rebounds + assists. On the same hand, the Pelicans are also without Zion Williamson, thus taking a semi-competent rebounder off the floor.

But on the other hand, the Pelicans are without Williamson, which means they do not have by far their best player and only real shot at keeping this series competitive.

As of the morning, the Thunder are 8- to 8.5-point favorites over New Orleans. This game has the second-highest total of the slate, but 216.5 isn’t anything grand — so Vegas expects the Thunder to roll, more or less.

A lopsided game means less time for the starters and fewer chances for Giddey to load up the stat sheet. Maybe he helps build a Thunder lead with a triple-double or something close to that, but OddsShopper is giving Giddey a 56% chance of falling shy of 25.5 PRA.

The absence of Kawhi Leonard may lead some to Harden’s over since the ball will likely stick in his hand a bit more. But keep in mind this is playoff Harden now. That’s a different animal, and not in a good way. Harden averaged 8.5 assists in 2023-24, and though Leonard being out and a high-total game environment may in theory tick up the assists, the playoff atmosphere should knock that right back down.

Of course, that’s not the most scientific analysis, so let’s break down what we really like about this bet.

Once again, the industry is putting this at -120 at best, with the results prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run when you take these +EV bets.

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