This column stayed hot on Friday with a 2-1 performance, bringing us to 11-1 for the week. Can we keep that momentum up? I sure hope so: I have NBA player prop picks out for Dejounte Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Johnson tonight. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Dejounte Murray & More
Dejounte Murray Player Prop
Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks, who are on the front end of a back-to-back set, will visit the Washington Wizards, who are on the back end of a back-to-back set. I usually avoid overs for teams in this situation, but I just cannot up the shot profile of Dejounte Murray against this Wizards defense. It’s a smash spot for him.
Washington coughs up the second-most made shots per game in the restricted area (21.1) on the second-highest conversion rate (71.7%). Washington also surrenders the second-most made shots per game from the corner (4.5) on the fourth-highest conversion rate (44.1%). Murray ranks third on the Hawks in shots per game in the restricted area (4.1) and second in shots per game from the corner (1.8).
Murray put together four very unimpressive games against the Wizards last year, averaging 16.8 points per game on 35 minutes. However, he racked up 24 in 34 minutes in his lone start against them this year, sinking a pair of shots from the corner and six shots in the restricted area, good for 18 points.
We’ve only seen the Wizards play one game without rest this year. They coughed up 76 points in the paint and nine from the corner to the Toronto Raptors in a four-point loss. Look for Murray to exploit a gassed defense for another big night. While he could see his evening end early if the Hawks get out to a big lead, Atlanta has not played the defense necessary for me to be that worried about a blowout. You’ll find the over 20.5 priced at -108 on FanDuel.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 20.5 Points -108 at FanDuel
Jalen Johnson Player Prop
We’re going back to the Hawks-Wizards well with this NBA player prop pick. Jalen Johnson is averaging only 7.7 rebounds per game this year, and with Atlanta on the front end of a back-to-back, head coach Quin Snyder could get creative with his personnel decisions at wing. Johnson played 33 in the front end of the most recent Atlanta back-to-back.
In addition to the unfavorable scheduling for Atlanta, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Johnson Under 8.5 Rebounds -136 at FanDuel
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a weird spot scheduling-wise. They last played on Wednesday, giving them two full days off, and they won’t play again until Tuesday, giving them another two full days off. That means we can expect their stars to play big minutes if this one is close.
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an excellent target on the defensive prop markets. He’ll draw a matchup with the high-usage Tyrese Maxey, who, while in the midst of a breakout season, is no stranger to coughing up the basketball. The Philadelphia 76ers are allowing the third-most steals per game to point guards (2.3) despite allowing the ninth-fewest overall steals per game (7.1).
Gilgeous-Alexander has been an effective defender this year. He is averaging a career-high 2.4 steals per game, which, while probably not sustainable, is a good sign for prospective over backers. SGA has at least two steals in eight of his 14 appearances this year. He also has stolen the ball at least once in every game.
The home-away splits point to a bit of value here, too. SGA averages 2.6 steals per game at home versus 2.1 on the road. Although the 76ers have coughed the ball up less on the road than at home this year, it’s still a small sample, and they allowed 0.5 more steals per game on the road than at home last year. Let’s trust SGA to get the job done against Maxey tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals -119 at Caesars
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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