Let’s go — after an 0-2 Thursday, we rebounded with a 2-0 Friday, bringing us to 15-7 over the last two weeks. We’re making a nice profit now, but we can still be winning at a higher clip, and I’m hoping to get over the 70% mark with another 2-0 performance tonight. I’ve found a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Luka Doncic & More
Luka Doncic Player Prop
The Dallas Mavericks have a chance to lock up their spot in the Western Conference Finals tonight with a home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Although the Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West, they haven’t played like it this round, and they’re 4-point road dogs this evening. But with elimination on the line, I expect the best from them.
But for as impressive as Dallas’ 3-2 series lead is, Luka Doncic hasn’t been the dominant piece the Mavs expect him to be. Over the first five games of this series, Doncic stayed under 37.5 points and assists four times, failing to clear that number until Game 5. He shot 55/46/67 in the process.
While it’s possible that Doncic is over his injury and is truly back in form, Oklahoma City’s slow pace and defensive aggression (well, at least the defensive aggression of Luguentz Dort) deserve some credit. While this has been the fastest-paced series at 94.6, that’s still well below the clips OKC (100.8) and Dallas (100.6) played at in the regular season.
OKC’s defensive rating this round (109.7) is slightly better than what they posted in the regular season (111), and it’s led to Doncic averaging 23.8 points and 8.4 assists (32.2) in the postseason. They’ve held him to splits of 42/35/68, which, while well below his regular-season rates (49/38/79) aren’t so far off as to suggest they’re unsustainable. For the first time all series, we can sell high on Doncic.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic points live odds page!
P.J. Washington Player Prop
When the Mavericks acquired Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline, few expected them to make a deep playoff run, but that’s exactly what’s happened following the move. Washington averaging 11.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in the regular season, but he has averaged a dominant 19.4 points and nine rebounds per game this series. Will the wheels fall off, or will he keep producing?
While I’m skeptical of Washington’s ability to keep this up, we’re getting action on this NBA player prop pick mostly due to the odds we’re getting at positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools estimate that the breakeven odds (called “true odds”) for this bet are -127. The tools arrive at that number after indexing the odds across the market; factoring in book sharpness, hold and more; then using that data to generate the true odds.
When a bet is trading for odds longer than that fair market price, we know it has +EV, which is exactly what we’re seeing in this case. Don’t just play this at any book, though — only BetMGM are offering a +EV line.
Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: P.J. Washington rebounds live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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