Yesterday’s NBA player props pick article went a solid 2-1, cashing an under on Paolo Banchero and an over (and ladder!) on Kyle Kuzma but losing an over for Dennis Schröder. It was overall not a profitable day for my full cards, though, bringing them to 129-109-3 (+28u) on the year. If you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Luka Doncic & More
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most effective interior scorers in the NBA. With Damian Lillard ing him on the Milwaukee Bucks, opposing defenses must adjust to stopping a pair of future Hall of Famers whenever the Bucks take the floor. But with the Bucks on the first leg of a back-to-back set, I’m fading the superstar forward against the Detroit Pistons.
The Pistons put up a fight in the paint. They have allowed only 16.7 made shots per game in the restricted area, which ranks 12th, to go with 52.8 points per game in the paint, which ranks 22nd. Those aren’t great numbers, but in a spot in which the Bucks are likely to limit Giannis’ minutes, they’re good enough for me.
Giannis is averaging 32 points per game this year and just dropped a monstrous 64-point game on the Indiana Pacers (we were on his over for that one!). Still, with his points prop trading at an inflated 33.5 — and the juice on the under — I can’t turn this one down. Giannis has only cleared the 33.5 in nine of his 23 games this year. He even failed to do so in his last start against the Pistons, in which he scored a season-low 15 in 21 minutes.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 33.5 Points +110 at DraftKings
Luka Doncic Player Prop
The Dallas Mavericks will visit the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. Kyrie Irving remains shelved, leaving Luka Doncic to lead the Mavericks with minimal competition for usage. Doncic’s season averages of 32.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game shift to 31.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 12.3 assists without Irving this year. Yet his assist averages are misleadingly bolstered by a pair of outlier showings in which he played 44-plus minutes. I doubt he’ll need to play that much against Portland tonight, so I can’t turn down the under 10.5 assists for odds well into the plus money, and OddsShopper can’t, either.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 10.5 Assists +120 at DraftKings
Donovan Mitchell Player Prop
The Cleveland Cavaliers won’t have point guard Darius Garland for the foreseeable future, which means Donovan Mitchell will take over for him. Without Garland this year, Mitchell averages 33.3 points and four assists per game, but without him last year, Mitchell averaged 34.4 points and 7.2 assists.
The downtick in Mitchell’s assist production without Garland feels more like some noise than a signal. Mitchell tallied at least six assists in all but three of his games without Garland last year but is yet to do so this year.
Matchups are part of the issue: two of Mitchell’s games without Garland came against average or above-average defenses in of assists allowed per game to point guards.
Mitchell draws a matchup with a putrid Atlanta Hawks defense tonight that has coughed up the second-most assists per game (28.8) and the second-most assists per game to point guards (9.9). Mitchell should feast as a er, especially with Atlanta on the wrong end of a back-to-back set.
Mitchell’s assist prop sits at 5.5 for this one, which is a rock-bottom price relative to what we saw him produce for the Cavaliers without Garland last year. I’m laddering this one through eight (+240 at DraftKings) to 10 (+800 at DraftKings) as a result. The over itself is down to -140 on ESPNBet, which I’m laying enough on to secure just over a full-unit return.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists -140 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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