The NBA has a loaded slate prepared for fans and bettors alike tonight, as each team will get a day off tomorrow. With tons of basketball in store on this Monday night, we can pick and choose our spots with greater ease, and I’ve dug up a handful with a boatload of value. So what are today’s best NBA player prop picks? Let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Spencer Dinwiddie & More
Spencer Dinwiddie Player Prop
Damian Lillard either doesn’t know how to play defense or doesn’t care enough to play it. The Milwaukee Bucks have been fried by opposing offenses with him on the floor — they are 2.2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with him on the floor than off it. The trickle-down effects of Lillard’s lazy defense have been especially obvious on the perimeter: the Bucks rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage allowed (37.7%).
Enter Spencer Dinwiddie. Few players have punished Lillard-led teams more for their poor perimeter defense than him. Dinwiddie is averaging 2.7 3-pointers per game against Lillard across an 11-game sample. More importantly, he has recorded multiple 3-pointers in their last seven meetings, through which he is averaging four per game.
The books are listing Dinwiddie’s 3-pointers prop at only 1.5, which, again, is a number he has beaten in his last seven meetings with Lillard. While there is certainly more at play than a meeting between two point guards, it’s worth noting that Dinwiddie is also averaging 2.6 3-pointers per game on the season. I recommend wagering enough to secure a half-unit return on the over at the price of -170 on FanDuel — but then also wagering a half-unit on him to record three-plus at +195, also at FanDuel.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie 2+ 3-Pointers -170 at FanDuel
Jalen Duren Player Prop
Both the Golden State Warriors and Detroit Pistons are coming off the wrong end of a back-to-back. Both squads lost tough games last night. However, Golden State has the advantage of a fresh center — Kevon Looney played just 15 minutes last night. He’ll line up against Jalen Duren, who racked up 31 minutes.
Although the Warriors will have to deal with the stresses of a back-to-back tonight, they have been exceptional at defending the paint this season. The Warriors lead the NBA in made shots allowed in the restricted area (13.4) and rank second in points in the paint allowed per game (40.6). With Duren taking 79.6% of his shots in the restricted area, tonight’s matchup bodes poorly.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Jalen Duren under today. You’ll find his points total set to 13.5 — slightly less than his season average (14.3) but far less than his average last season (9.1). I recommended this play via OddsShopper Insider Access when it was trading at -104, and in a matter of minutes, it ticked down to -108. Still, with Pinnacle taking action on the under 12.5 at -125, there is still value to exploit.
The -108 (51.9%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds of -133 (57%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper , you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Duren Under 13.5 Points -108 at FanDuel
Kelly Oubre Jr. Player Prop
Let’s wrap this column up with an over for Kelly Oubre Jr. With P.J. Tucker now playing for the Los Angeles Clippers, the 76ers had slid Oubre into their starting lineup, and he is averaging 24 points per game in his new role. With him playing alongside threats like Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, opposing defenses have been happier to let Oubre shoot than risk open looks from his teammates.
Oubre now draws a terrible Washington Wizards defense that allows the second-most points in the paint (59.2) and the most corner 3-pointers (6) per game. Oubre ranks second on the 76ers in both shots per game from the restricted area (6) and 3-pointers attempted per game from the corner (1.4), so he is quite well-positioned to exploit this defense.
It’s also worth noting that Oubre cooked the Wizards for 20-plus points in his last three games against them. He did so for the Charlotte Hornets, for which he played a high-usage role, but his more efficient teammates in Philadelphia leave him open to make more cuts or to take more open 3-pointers.
Our NBA betting tools make this play that much more obvious as a value. Oubre’s point total is set to 17.5 today, a number he has sured in each of his games as a starter for Philadelphia and in his last three games against the Hornets, with the over priced at -104 on FanDuel. You’ll find the same bet priced at -120 or worse across the market, except at Pinnacle, where it’ll cost you a whopping -137.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 17.5 Points -104 at FanDuel
