March Madness may reign supreme for the next few weeks, but with the men’s college basketball tournament on a break until Thursday, the NBA regains some prominence on Monday. Today, I’m back with NBA player prop picks for Luka Doncic, Darius Garland and Josh Hart. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to expert picks page), my NBA cards this year sat at +19.4u.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Luka Doncic & More
Luka Doncic Player Prop
My NBA player prop betting process: I look at the schedule, I look at the injury report, I look at BetMGM.
The Utah Jazz have struggled with giving up assists this season, especially to point guards, but signs point to that trend changing. It’s true that they have allowed the most assists per game to the position this year (10.2), but, over the last 15 games, they have allowed only the 14th-most (8.3); over the last seven, they have allowed the seventh-fewest (7.6).
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. By indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to produce the breakeven odds for each bet, the model gives us a good idea of where we can beat the market. When we find a bet trading for longer odds than the breakeven price, it’s time to pounce. That’s what we see with this Doncic bet:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 10.5 Assists +105 at BetMGM
Darius Garland Player Prop
This Darius Garland bet was trading ever-so-slightly below the threshold for FanDuel before they adjusted. Make sure to get in early before the value on this NBA player prop bet disappears.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, but they tapped out early versus the Miami Heat yesterday. Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and company all played only 22 minutes or less, so they should be fresh to beat up on the Charlotte Hornets tonight. With Garland getting off so many shots and continuing to shoot well without teammate Donovan Mitchell, we’re trusting him to stuff the stat sheet on Monday. That’s the least we can ask of him in this matchup.
Garland has played the Hornets three times since the 2021-22 season without Mitchell. Over that sample, he averaged 30.7 PRA. He should explode again with Charlotte struggling versus point guards: over the last 15 games, the Hornets have coughed up the seventh-most points (25.8), most rebounds (8) and 12th-most assists (8.7) per game to the position.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Darius Garland Over 29.5 PRA -106 at BetRivers
Josh Hart Player Prop
Let’s wrap up today’s article with what I expect will be an unpopular pick. Fan favorite Josh Hart, who has made bettors some serious coin with triple-doubles this season, will take on the Detroit Pistons tonight. This game should be a blowout win for New York, and the notoriously stubborn Tom Thibodeau should curb the minutes for key pieces like Hart.
Over the last 15 games, Josh Hart has been averaging 30.1 PRA per game. However, he has needed 42.4 minutes per game to accomplish the feat, so he averages 0.7 PRA per minute. That isn’t efficient enough to go over the 29.5 at his likely reduced workload, especially with Jalen Brunson back at the controls of this offense following a brief absence and minutes restriction earlier in the month.
More importantly, we’re beating the market with this under today. Hart is trading for odds of -111 at OddsShopper board today, and I had to lock it in for a unit before the odds shifted unfavorably.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Josh Hart Under 29.5 PRA -111 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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