Let’s go! I took the last few days off for a wedding, but our last two NBA player prop columns both went 2-0. It’s only a six-game slate today, but there are plenty of spots where we can dig up some value on these markets with the help of OddsShopper . Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Pascal Siakam and Wendell Carter Jr.
To gain access to my picks in real-time, ensuring you get the best odds, subscribe to expert picks page), my NBA cards from this season sit at +18.3u.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Pascal Siakam & More
Wendell Carter Jr. Player Prop
I’m starting today’s column off with a bit of an oddball play — we’re not using OddsShopper ’s +EV calculations for this one since block and steal props aren’t widely ed by enough sportsbooks, but I still used the tool to find the best price for this one. We’re backing Orlando Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. to swat at least one shot versus the Portland Trail Blazers today.
Blocks have been an issue for Portland all season, and with the current state of their roster, they’re likely to be an even bigger one today. Portland ranks 28th in blocks allowed per game to centers on the year (3). With Anfernee Simons (out) and Jerami Grant (doubtful) likely absent today, we’ll get to see plenty of field goal attempts from Portland’s shaky youngsters and reserves.
WCJ should see, at a minimum, 20 minutes. He has been held to fewer three times this year but never because of a blowout — in fact, in the five wins of 20-plus points he has participated in for the Magic, WCJ averaged 26.4 minutes. That should be enough time for him to record a single swat against this injury-riddled roster.
Of course, WCJ isn’t the most involved defensive play, but he is still averaging 0.54 blocks per game. Importantly, he has picked things up since the All-Star Break, improving his average slightly (0.61) in his 18 appearances since then.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. Over 0.5 Blocks -135 at DraftKings
Pascal Siakam Player Prop
Let’s turn to what OddsShopper all before beginning my personal research — and this prop stood out to me immediately. We’re fading Pascal Siakam against the Brooklyn Nets today.
Siakam has been rebounding at an absurd (and likely unsustainable) clip since the All-Star Break. He has averaged 12.4 rebound chances per game, converting 8.9 (71.7%) of them into actual boards. His teammate, Myles Turner, has averaged 13.1 rebound chances yet only 6.8 actual rebounds (51.9%) through that stretch. Before the break, Siakam was averaging 6.4 boards on 10.2 chances (62.7%). Further, his recent 71.7% conversion rate ranks third in the entire NBA.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the odds from across the market; adjusts for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and uses those datapoints to produce a breakeven price (or “true odds“) of each bet. When a bet is trading for longer odds than the true odds, the model recommends it. That’s what we see with this Siakam bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Pascal Siakam Under 8.5 Rebounds +110 at bet365 or +105 at BetMGM
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