Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Friday, May 3

Tonight could be our last chance to face James Harden until October, and if you’ve read this column all season, you know that’s not an opportunity I’m going to up. While Harden has been electric at points this series, he has also disappeared for long stretches, including his seven-point performance in Game 5. While some may want to back him for a rebound showing, I’m not interested.

Harden’s points prop is trading at 20.5 on FanDuel, which may seem fair given his series average of 22.2 points per game, but let’s talk about what it’s taken for him to get there. Harden’s shooting splits of 48/44/92 are impressive, but considering he shot 43/38/88 in the regular season (often with Kawhi Leonard drawing defensive attention away, too), they’re also probably unsustainable.

We’re back in Dallas for this one, and it’s the best chance Luka Doncic and friends will have to close out the series. Winning this game will begin and end with stifling Harden and Paul George, which the Mavs mostly did in Game 5. Harden only logged two uncontested field goal attempts in that contest after averaging seven per game in Games 1 through 4.

The +130 at DraftKings is beating literally every other public book by a wide margin. Nowhere else is this bet longer than +125, and you’re hard-pressed to find it longer than +115. The consensus appears to be in the +112 to +106 range. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it for +105.

The model works by taking in the odds from across the market; factoring in things like hold, book sharpness and more; then projecting a breakeven price (called “true odds“) with that information. When you see a bet trading for a price longer than its true odds, it has +EV.

What can be difficult ing a backtested simulations prove this strategy is a profitable one, you can’t let iffy early returns discourage you.