Yikes. We were 13-5 on NBA player props since last Monday, but yesterday’s 0-2 showing brings us to 13-7. That’s still good, but it’s not great, and I know I can do better. I’ve identified a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Donte DiVincenzo & More
Donte DiVincenzo Player Prop
What happened to Donte DiVincenzo? After starting the series hot, averaging 29.3 points per game on splits of 51/56/100, the wing has basically disappeared, averaging 7.5 on 26/8/NA over the last two. It’s not just his efficiency that’s cratered, though — DiVincenzo went from playing 44 minutes to 31 and from taking 21 field goals to 13.5.
To answer that question, let’s look at the box scores. DiVincenzo’s primary defender in Game 1 was Tyrese Haliburton, but the Pacers swapped to Andrew Nembhard by Game 3, and it’s been him ever since. Haliburton was still spending some minutes on DiVincenzo in Game 3 but is no longer even his secondary defender, which may explain the dip.
But I’m not convinced that Indiana’s defensive adjustments have much to do with DiVincenzo’s sudden cold spell. In Game 3, DiVincenzo shot 9-for-14 on uncontested looks. Then, in Game 4, he shot 1-for-6 when not defended, and he followed that up by shooting 3-for-9 in Game 5. He’s still getting quality looks, and, after two off nights, the Pacers may be content to give him some more.
Of course, Tom Thibodeau’s willingness to go away from DiVincenzo if he struggles is a concern, but with OG Anunoby now on the shelf, his solution in Game 5 was to ride with Alec Burks. While it proved to be a sharp move then, I suspect DiVincenzo will get back to his more efficient ways in Game 6. In the regular season, DiVincenzo averaged 24 points per game on splits of 47/36/50. His Game 4 and 5 performances were the outliers, not Games 1 through 3.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Donte DiVincenzo points live odds page!
Alec Burks Player Prop
Let’s play a correlated angle to our Donte DiVincenzo prop — we’ll fade the player that Thibs turned to instead of him in Game 5. Alec Burks basically has to see the floor with OG Anunoby sidelined, and he has played between 21 (Game 3) and 23 (Game 5) so far. However, his shot volume changed between those contests. He got only six looks alongside a more effective DiVincenzo in Game 3 but got 11 in both Games 4 and 5.
Ultimately, though, this NBA player prop pick is on the card because of the odds we’re getting at positive expected value (+EV):
Our NBA +EV betting tools estimate a fair market price (or “true odds”) for this bet to be -110. The tools reach this conclusion by indexing the odds across the market; factoring in book sharpness, hold and more; then using that data to generate the true odds.
When a bet is trading for odds longer than that fair market price, we know it has +EV, which is exactly what we’re seeing in this case. Make sure to pounce before the value disappears!
Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Alec Burks 3-pointers live odds page!
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