In another frustrating night of injury news, two of our article picks voided, leaving us with a 1-0 showing as we cashed our Tyrese Haliburton under. Still, another down night outside of article plays brought my NBA cards to 170-135-9 (+42.7u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Mikal Bridges & More
Jalen Suggs Player Prop
The New York Knicks will visit the Orlando Magic tonight before making the trek to Indianapolis tomorrow for a date with the Indiana Pacers. The Magic have no such travel concerns — they’re playing their third game in four days, to be fair, but will get a day off before a road date with the Phoenix Suns on New Year’s Eve.
Jalen Suggs finds himself in a great spot to succeed tonight. The shooting guard draws a matchup with a New York defense that allows the ninth-most points per game to the position (23.2) and the second-most corner 3-pointers per game (4.7), a zone Suggs has dominated this year.
Suggs is averaging only 0.5 corner 3-pointers per game, but he has converted a monstrous 50% from the left corner. His primary rival for corner looks in Orlando, Gary Harris, is questionable. When Harris sits, Suggs averages 15 points per game, much higher than his current season average (12.7).
Suggs’ other competition for open 3-pointers from the corner or wing include Jonathan Isaac, who is also questionable, and Joe Ingles, who is out. Suggs averages 13.8 points without Ingles this year, but his numbers are slightly worse without Isaac.
You’ll find Suggs’ point total trading at only 12.5 on most books. The over will cost you only -115 at ESPNBet, which is a great deal, especially when you consider this final data point: Suggs averages 14.1 points per game at home, far higher than the 10.9 he averages on the road. You’ll find Suggs’ point total trading at 13.5 on Pinnacle, a sharp book, albeit with the juice stacked on the under. Still, I advise locking this one in at ESPNBet before it gets bid up.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Suggs Over 12.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet
Tobias Harris Player Prop
The Philadelphia 76ers are in a bind. Star center Joel Embiid has been missing time, which leaves them severely shorthanded for a rough bit of scheduling. The 76ers just played on Wednesday, are playing today, and will play again tomorrow. They handled the Orlando Magic with ease on Wednesday but now will have to play the Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls in consecutive days on the road. This tough part of their schedule makes me eager to fade Tobias Harris, and OddsShopper agrees on the sharpness of this pick.
The Rockets may sit at only 15-14, but they rank fourth in defensive rating and 28th in pace. Those factors have helped the limit opposing power forwards to the fifth-fewest points per game (21.8) and opposing small forwards to the eighth-fewest (20.2).
Scheduling and matchup aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Tobias Harris Under 21.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
Mikal Bridges Player Prop
The Brooklyn Nets will take on the Washington Wizards tonight, and I expect big things out of wing Mikal Bridges. Since getting dealt at the deadline for Kevin Durant, Bridges’ usage rate has exploded. This season, Bridges owns a usage rate of 25.6%, which leads Brooklyn’s starters.
Importantly, Bridges does a lot of his damage in the paint. The budding star attempts a team-high 7.8 shots per game in the paint, which is especially meaningful since the Wizards allow the second-most points in the paint per game (59.3). Washington also coughs up the most made field goals in the restricted area per game (21.6).
Washington’s poor interior defense has allowed the most points per game to small forwards (25.6), the fifth-most to power forwards (26.1) and the most to centers (28.4). Although Nicolas Claxton and Cameron Johnson are both solid scorers, neither drives to the rim — Bridges leads the Nets’ starters in drives per game with 13.1.
Bridges is averaging 21.1 points per game this year, but that number ticks up slightly when he plays on the road (21.4) and against Eastern Conference opponents (23). Bridges has faced the Wizards twice already this year. He scored 27 points in 34 minutes in their first meeting and 21 in 30 in their second. His singular failure to clear this line came with Cam Thomas in the starting five, but with Dorian Finney-Smith listed as probable, Thomas should slide back onto the bench unit.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
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