We split 1-1 in this column to advance our recent record to a profitable 8-4, cashing a Jalen Johnson under but losing a Stephen Curry under. It’s a loaded NBA card tonight as the basketball world prepares to shift its attention back to the NCAA, and I’ve found two high-value spots to attack with some help from OddsShopper . In today’s article, I’ll lay out my NBA player prop picks for Bam Adebayo and Isaiah Hartenstein.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Bam Adebayo & More
Bam Adebayo Player Prop
Bam Adebayo has several NBA player props trading with positive expected value (+EV) in our betting model today. Backing him to stay under 10.5 rebounds for +100, under 3.5 assists for +100 or under 18.5 points for -120 were all sharp bets this morning, per the model.
Instead of playing any of those lines, I advise taking Adebayo to stay under 22.5 points and assists for -125 at FanDuel — we’re getting an extra bit of breathing room that the rest of the market isn’t offering. Adebayo was trading at -110 to stay under 21.5 points and assists virtually everywhere else.
Adebayo and the Heat are coming off a tough loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night, and, at least this season, Adebayo has struggled without rest. Despite averaging 19.6 points and 4 assists generally, he averages only 17.1 points and 3.6 without a day off, good for a total of 20.7.
The Houston Rockets, who are fighting for their playoff lives after a brutal loss to the Golden State Warriors, are a tough team to deal with at home. They’ve gone an NBA-best 26-12-1 ATS in Houston and will cause problems for Adebayo tonight.
The Rockets have been stingy to centers all season, regardless of whether Alperen Sengün is available. This year, Houston has allowed the 13th-fewest points (22.5) and the seventh-fewest assists (4) to the position. Over the last 15 games, Houston ranks seventh (21.2) and fourth (3) in both metrics. I’m fading Adebayo as an offensive contributor tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo points and assists live odds page!
Isaiah Hartenstein Player Prop
Now that my top pick is out of the way, I want to talk about one of my favorite bets from OddsShopper all before kicking off my research. This Isaiah Hartenstein player prop jumped out at me even before I dug further into the card. We’re fading him as a scorer against the Chicago Bulls.
Hartenstein should remain the starting center in Tom Thibodeau’s lineup, but that isn’t a guarantee with Mitchell Robinson progressing and Precious Achiuwa providing valuable minutes off the bench, and I suspect their availability will cut into his workload over time. Thibs is notorious for overworking his starters, but he rotates his big men with more frequency — Hartenstein played only 29 minutes last night as Robinson got 15 and Achiuwa got nine. Those minutes could fluctuate with New York on the second leg of a back-to-back set, too.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the lines from across the market; adjusts for factors such as book sharpness, hold and more; and uses those numbers to generate a breakeven price (or “true odds“) for each wager. When a line is available for longer odds than the true odds, the model recommends we get action on it, as is the case with this Hartenstein bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Points -102 at SuperBook or page.
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