Let’s go! We started the NBA Finals slow, but we went 2-0 on Game 3, bringing us to 3-3 for the series and 16-6 since the Conference Finals. With the end of the NBA season looming, can we cash in a few more times this year? I hope so — let’s get right into the NBA player prop picks I’ve found with the help of NBA +EV betting tools for Celtics-Mavericks Game 4.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Celtics-Mavericks Game 4
Al Horford Player Prop
If there were ever a spot that the Boston Celtics could give some rest to veteran big man Al Horford this series, it’s Game 4. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable, and, per head coach Joe Mazzulla, will test his leg in pregame warmups. I still doubt he plays, but even if he doesn’t, the Celtics have options other than Horford.
Xavier Tillman Sr. played 11 excellent minutes off the bench in Game 3, recording three points, four rebounds and two blocks. He finished at +9. Meanwhile, Horford tallied only eight points and five rebounds in his 37 minutes before finishing at -2.
, Game 3 was on Wednesday, giving both sides just one night off. Horford is 38 years old. He never played in a back-to-back this year, and on one night of rest, he averaged 14.2 combined points and rebounds, down from his season average of 15. Tonight, his points and rebounds total is… 16.5?
Horford has stayed under 16.5 points and rebounds in all but five of his 17 playoff appearances this year, including all but one of his appearances this series. While the splits without Porzingis paint a different picture, Horford still only went over three times in 11 playoff games without him. I’m stunned we’re getting Horford to stay under 16.5 for -118 at DraftKings tonight, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Al Horford points live odds page!
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
Sorry, Celtics fans, it’s another under for your team tonight. I found this NBA player prop pick with help from our NBA player prop betting model: it wants us to fade Jaylen Brown on the assist markets tonight. Brown averaged only 3.6 assists per game in the regular season and is averaging 3.2 in the postseason, but his 5.7 assists per game this series have the total up to 4.5.
You’ll find Brown to stay under the 4.5 at -130 on BetRivers. Pretty much every other public book has realized that’s a terrible (and inefficient) line, as this prop is trading with odds of between -138 and -185 everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it for -162:
This Brown under is trading with BetRivers because of their off-market number. The same goes for the lines at Unibet and SugarHouse. The -138 at FanDuel is still a decent bet, but you should obviously buy the -130 if you can.
The true odds of this bet clock in at -139, so we’re edging out enough value for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $17. Our tools reach that conclusion with a formula based in the Kelly Criterion, an approach to risk and bankroll management.
The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown assists live odds page!
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