What’s up, everyone? Eric Lindquist here bringing you the Thursday edition of NBA Lindy’s Leans, Likes and Locks. Before we get into the picks, I have to vent for a second — NBA beat reporters, we need to talk. The lack of timely updates and clarity is making life a nightmare for us bettors. Miles McBride’s late scratch, for example — what even happened there? And finding lines like a Cameron Payne prop? Forget about it. NBA reporting needs to step it up. OK, rant over. Let’s break down the best NBA bets for today: Game lines, odds and player props. If you haven’t read our +EV NBA bets!
Best NBA Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
Before we dive in, don’t forget to grab 50% off my Tails subscription by using promo code LINDY50 at checkout! Now we head to the picks.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Let’s start with the Clippers taking on Oklahoma City. I’m leaning toward the Clippers here, even though the spread is a hefty +9.5. If I had serious blowout concerns, I’d steer clear, but I don’t see that happening. What really catches my eye in this matchup, though, is Ivica Zubac and his rebound prop.
Oklahoma City has been stellar defensively — No. 1 top in defensive rating — but it has a glaring weakness on the boards. It ranks 29th in rebound rate, which makes Zubac an intriguing option. With Isaiah Hartenstein likely matching up against him for significant minutes, Zubac has a great chance to rack up rebounds. I’m eyeing a rebound ladder here, starting around 12.5 or 13.5 as the opening number. If this game stays competitive, 16-plus+, 18-plus or even 20-plus rebounds are within reach. Look for the best odds on DraftKings for this one.
NBA Best Bet: Ivica Zubac Rebound Ladder (LEAN)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors
Next up, the 76ers are +3.5 against the Warriors, with Kelly Oubre ruled out. That means it’s the Tyrese Maxey show. Joel Embiid sat out yesterday’s game against Sacramento to be fresh for this one, which makes sense given the potential matchup advantages against Golden State.
We’re playing the total at 217.5, and there’s value in betting the over before it climbs higher. Even if Stephen Curry ends up sitting (he’s questionable), this game has a strong chance to hit the 221.5 to 222 range. Monitor the lineups closely, as there could be more prop opportunities once we get confirmation on who’s in and out.
NBA Best Bet: Over 217.5 (LIKE)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Since D’Angelo Russell went to the Nets, Austin Reaves has taken on a much larger role for the Lakers. In the three games since Christmas, Reaves led the team in usage rate (nearly 30%) and was second in assist rate (just under 40%). He was also third in rebound rate, though that’s less relevant here.
Reaves is listed at 25.5 points + assists (-125) at bet365, and I’m all over the over. This is one of those bets where the market hasn’t fully caught up to Reaves’ expanded role, and we’re going to capitalize on it.
NBA Best Bet: Austin Reaves Points + Assists Over 25.5 (LOCK)
