Although NBA bettors won’t have meaningful basketball to bet on again for another few days, things like the All-Star Game, Rising Stars Game and 3-Point Contest can help tide us over. Bettors should head to OddsShopper’s tools to find other smart bets.
Best NBA 3-Point Contest Bet | Buddy Hield
Buddy Hield to Win the 3-Point Contest
Although Buddy Hield is favored to win Saturday’s 3-Point Contest, getting him at +430 at Caesars still makes for a +EV bet. The 3-point contest requires players to shoot from five zones — both corners, both wings and the top of the key. That means 60% of a player’s attempts will come from above the break, so shooting effectively from that part of the floor matters most.
The 3-Point Contest traditionally features eight of the NBA’s best shooters. However, this year’s field is a bit more eclectic. Alongside traditional sharpshooters like Hield, Damian Lillard, Tyler Herro and Kevin Huerter are Jayson Tatum, Julius Randle, Lauri Markkanen and Tyrese Haliburton.
A look at historical data reveals that each of the last eight winners were shooting no worse than 37.4% from above the break heading into All-Star Weekend. Seven — everyone except Buddy Hield in 2019-20 — were shooting 38% or better from above the break.
But of this year's field, only four players meet that cutoff: Hield (40.9%), Huerter (39.7%), Haliburton (39.6%) and Markkanen (37.5%). Lillard (37.2%) slots in just below, but Herro (36.2%), Tatum (34.5%) and Randle (34.1%) find themselves well below that mark.
Bettors could still turn a profit by splitting a unit on all four of those players, as the books have their odds set to +410 or longer. But a look at recent form reveals that bettors should just play the favorite. Over his last five games, Huerter has converted only 31.3% of his 3-pointers. Markkanen has converted only 27.5%. Although Haliburton has converted an impressive 46.4%, he has averaged only 5.6 attempts per game. In contrast, Hield has converted 40.7% of his 3-pointers on 10.8 attempts per game.
The historic trends and recent form point to Buddy Hield as the clear best bet to win this year's 3-Point Contest. Bettors looking for the best bet should head to Caesars Sportsbook for the best price on the market.
Best 3-Point Contest Bet: Buddy Hield to Win (+430 for 0.25 Unit) at Caesars
