It’s throwback weekend! The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington, South Carolina for the first of two races on the egg-shaped oval. Darlington, known for its rough surface, is known as the track “Too Tough to Tame” — and it will look to retake its honor as home of the closest finish in NASCAR after the famous 2003 photo finish was just beaten last week. As teh NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington for the 2024 Goodyear 400 this Sunday, I recommend getting some action on a few drivers with odds that clock in too long. Let’s dive straight into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Darlington as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Goodyear 400.
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NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Goodyear 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Darlington
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Goodyear 400 Odds & Race Preview
NASCAR Darlington Outright Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 |
| William Byron | +600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +650 |
| Tyler Reddick | +800 |
| Chris Buescher | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +900 |
| Christopher Bell | +1500 |
| Chase Elliott | +1500 |
| Ross Chastain | +1800 |
| Kyle Busch | +2000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2800 |
| Joey Logano | +2800 |
| Noah Gragson | +4500 |
| Erik Jones | +5500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +5500 |
| Alex Bowman | +5500 |
Goodyear 400 Race Preview
Darlington is one of my favorite tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The high levels of tire wear reward drivers with the most skill. Unlike smooth, high-speed intermediates, drivers can’t lean on their equipment as heavily — it comes down more to what a driver can do with their equipment than what the equipment itself can do.
In the NextGen Era, four drivers have won at Darlington: Kyle Larson (+400), William Byron (+600), Joey Logano (+2800) and Erik Jones (+5500). That list is somewhat misleading, as the drivers who led the most laps in each of the last three Darlington races failed to win, and even though Logano led the most in his victory, he needed to punt Byron to ultimately secure the checkered flag.
The four drivers who led the most laps at Darlington over the last four years were Logano, Kyle Busch (+2000), Martin Truex Jr. (+650) and Denny Hamlin (+500). That run by Busch was his last here in a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota; he is yet to lead another lap here. Leading the second-most laps in those respective races were Hamlin, Logano, Ross Chastain (+1800) and Tyler Reddick (+800).
While some drivers go all-out to win at Darlington, others have the speed and discipline to rack up top-10s. No driver has a top-10 in all four NextGen races, but five have three: Reddick, Byron, Bubba Wallace (+5500), Chase Elliott (+1500) and Brad Keselowski (+900). Notably absent from that list are three of the four latest winners here.
My last note for Darlington revolves around the recent Xfinity Series results at this track. Noah Gragson (+4500) ran four races here between 2021 and 2022, winning twice and recording the best driver rating three times. In 2023, John Hunter Nemechek (+20000) won the pole and recorded the best driver rating in both Xfinity Series events here.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Goodyear 400 Picks & Predictions | Darlington
Goodyear 400 Bet: Buy the Noah Gragson Dip | NASCAR Cup Series
Before qualifying, Noah Gragson was trading between odds of +140 and +160 to score a top-10 finish. He looked fast in practice, reeling off the 13th-best individual lap time and the seventh-best 10-lap average, but a poor qualifying run means he’ll start the race in 36th. Gragson is now trading at odds of +200 to do so.
It’s not as much of a dip as I would’ve liked, but +200 (33.3%) for a driver with five top-10s in 12 starts this season is a decent deal, especially since we’re at one of his best tracks on the schedule.
Also, Gragson’s outright odds have cratered to +6600 at BetMGM, which, while not unreasonable for a driver starting in 36th, doesn’t reflect the rest of the market. Most other books still have him priced between +4500 and +5000.
Goodyear 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Noah Gragson +6600 at BetMGM
Goodyear 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Noah Gragson T10 +200 at Hard Rock
Goodyear 400 Bet: Christopher Bell is Has Too Much Value | NASCAR Cup Series
When people discuss the drivers with the most raw talent in the Cup Series, Christopher Bell too often misses the shortlist. Drivers like Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick have a flashier style, especially when it comes to riding the wall. William Byron has more late-race wins. Denny Hamlin has had a longer career.
But Bell has shown that he can win at almost any type of track, scoring wins on short tracks, dirt tracks, intermediates and road courses since arriving in the Cup Series. However, he failed to score a top-10 at Darlington last year despite leading 40 laps and finishing no worse than sixth in the two races a year prior.
Bell will start a respectable 12th tonight. I have faith that he’ll be able to score a top-10 result, and he could even snag his second win of the season this weekend. Buy him at +1500 on DraftKings outright and -130 at Hard Rock to score a top-10.
Goodyear 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Christopher Bell +1500 at DraftKings
Goodyear 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Christopher Bell T10 -130 at Hard Rock
