Last weekend’s event at Michigan was one of the worst beats we’ve suffered this year — the Toyotas had dominant speed, but poor strategy calls and bad pit-road performance cost Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick what should’ve been an easy win for the manufacturer. We’ve got the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard on Sunday, August 13 at 2:30 p.m. ET from the Indy Road Course. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Michigan — we’re trusting the Toyotas but are getting some exposure to A.J. Allmendinger.
NASCAR is one of the greatest sports to bet on! This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only of guide to successful NASCAR betting.
NASCAR Predictions for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard: Race Preview
How Should We Handicap the Brickyard/Indy Road Course?
Although not all road courses are the same, some are more similar to the Indy Road Course than others. The Indy Road Course, because it is a hybrid track, features plenty of long straightaways that form part of the oval circuit. Both the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and the Chicago Street Course feature similarly long straightaways, while Sonoma does not.
In the NextGen era, manufacturer dominance has often played a role at road courses. Heading into this race last year, Chevrolets had swept the road courses with wins at COTA, Sonoma and Road America. A driver from the manufacturer also recorded the best driver rating in each event — Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and Daniel Suarez, respectively. Tyler Reddick, another Chevrolet driver, went onto win at the Brickyard while recording the best driver rating.
The bowtie camp hasn’t been as dominant at road courses this season. Instead, we’ve seen Toyotas at the top of the board. Reddick dominated at COTA and recorded the best driver rating. Martin Truex Jr. did the same at Sonoma. Although a Chevrolet driver won at the Chicago Street Course, Christopher Bell recorded the second-best driver rating and looked poised to win the event early. Reddick recorded the fifth-best rating as well.
What About All the New Faces?
While manufacturer dominance is one thing to consider, the surplus of specialized drivers in the field this week is another. Shane van Gisbergen, an Australian Supercars driver who pulled off a massive upset in Chicago, is back in the No. 91 Chevrolet. A Supercar rival, Brodie Kostecki, will drive the No. 33 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing. Kamui Kobayashi, a sports car and former F1 driver, will pilot the No. 67 Toyota for 23XI. F1 legend Jenson Button is in the No. 15 Ford for Rick Ware, ed by Andy Lally in the No. 51. Mike Rockenfeller will also pilot the No. 42 Chevrolet for Legacy Motor Club.
SVG’s win at Chicago raises a litany of questions, including how much the rain played a role in the upset and whether Cup Series drivers are the world’s best-equipped to handle the NextGen car on road courses, which makes this race especially difficult to handicap. Betting on this event won’t be for the faint of heart, especially with the books wi to the talent of the sport’s new arrivals.
NASCAR Predictions for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard: Best Bets
Take the Best Number for Toyota You Can Find
I will be honest: I am not sure of the best way to attack this event. We got a ton of value on Toyota’s road course resurgence when we cashed a 31-1 ticket on Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma, but the books have since adjusted. Truex closed at 10-1 (9.1%) for that event and is currently trading as the favorite for this one at 4-1 (20%). As a manufacturer, Toyota owns odds of only 3-2 (40%) via Bet365 to win the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. That still makes them dogs to Chevrolet, but not by the widest of margins.
We’re trusting Toyota because of the manufacturer’s raw speed. At COTA, Reddick paced the field in green flag speed, with his teammate, Bubba Wallace, ranking fourth. Truex paced the field in the metric at Sonoma, followed closely by teammate Denny Hamlin. Reddick and Christopher Bell ranked third and fourth, respectively, in Chicago. Toyota controlled six of the possible 15 top-5 spots, and, importantly, paced the field in both events that stayed dry.
Yet despite Toyota’s impressive turnaround on road courses, the books still list Chevrolet as the favorite. But by using Bet365’s own odds, you’ll see that Toyota drivers own a collective implied probability of 53.6%: Truex (20%), Reddick (16.7%), Bell (9.1%), Hamlin (4.4%), Kobayashi (2.9%) and Wallace (0.5%). You’ll find similar value on most manufacturer markets relative to standard outright markets because of hold, but that isn’t meaningless — this market’s 5.2% hold is less than the 5.7% hold present for just the top eight individual drivers on the outright markets.
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Best NASCAR Bet: Toyota +150 for 0.4 Units at Bet365
Can A.J. Allmendinger Pull off the Miracle?
I have mixed feelings about getting exposure to A.J. Allmendinger this weekend. On the one hand, he has won at this track in both the Cup and Xfinity Series. On the other, you won’t find him priced any shorter than 16-1 (5.9%) at FanDuel, which isn’t a great number for a longshot. But while Allmendinger hasn’t put together the results on road courses that some expected, there’s no time like the present for him to bounce back.
The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will begin in only a few weeks, and Allmendinger finds himself in need of a win. He ranks only 19th, which puts him 24 points out of 16th place. That’s a manageable gap, but he’ll have to outrun Ty Gibbs, Michael McDowell and Daniel Suarez to get there, all while hoping no new drivers win and that Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott don’t catch up. The pressure is on for Allmendinger, and even if he can’t dominate on Sunday, his team is one of the likeliest to make an aggressive late-race strategy call.
Allmendinger and Kaulig Racing has shown enough speed to win on road courses. Allmendinger ranked fifth in green flag speed at COTA, sixth at Sonoma and 11th at Chicago. His teammate, Justin Haley, nearly won at Chicago with an aggressive late-race strategy call and ranked ninth in green-flag speed. We may not be getting a ton of value on Allmendinger at 16-1 (5.9%), but this is the longest price we’ve seen for him on a road course in recent memory, so let’s pounce at the chance to buy low.
Best NASCAR Bet: A.J. Allmendinger 16-1 for 0.08 Units at FanDuel
