Sunday Night Baseball is all about the rivalry, with the most historically significant one in the sport taking center stage and each team throwing some gas on the mound. Let’s add some juice to the fun with a nice two-leg SGP — here is our best Parlay Builder.
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Yankees-Red Sox MLB Parlay: Caesars SGP With Jarren Duran
We are going with value compared to the market, and OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Yankees-Red Sox.
Leg #1: Jarren Duran Under 1.5 Total Bases
Somewhat quietly, Duran has been one of the best players in the American League this season, ranking fifth in WAR on Baseball Reference. That places him behind only the top 4 MVP candidates: Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr.
But to be honest, that has been due at least as much to his high-end defense and base running as it has been his bat. Sure, Duran is posting solid numbers at the plate like a 125 OPS+ — meaning he is performing 25% above average — though only places him 23rd in the American League.
Duran’s slugging is also 23rd, and his standard OPS is 16th. Again, that is quite good, but not the borderline-MVP levels that his all-around metrics suggest.
And though Duran is a strong splits guy, meaning he hits righties much better than lefties, today’s matchup is not an easy one against Marcus Stroman and the Yankees. Stroman’s underlying metrics are modest; however, he is at a career-low 7.3 hits per nine innings and has dropped both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
As always, the most important thing here is market value, and Duran’s under has that in spades.
OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder gives Duran a 53% chance of recording no more than one total base today. And since the True Odds of this bet are -113 against Caesars odds of -104, it is 3.9% +EV and the second-best value prop on the board for Yankees-Red Sox.
Leg #2: David Hamilton Under 1.5 Total Bases
Now, the No. 1 play by a wide margin is the Red Sox platoon shortstop. Hamilton typically hits second for the Red Sox against a righty and then either sits or bats low in the order against lefties. Taking on Stroman, he should hit at the top of the order. That obviously helps his case at multiple bases since he gets more plate appearances.
But the platooning also makes him a pinch-hit risk if the Yankees bring in a lefty later in the game. This season he has five games where he started and only got two plate appearances since he was pulled.
The Yankees only have two lefties in the bullpen, but they get used a lot — both have over 25 appearances this year.
And we haven’t even covered Hamilton’s performance at the plate this year. Well, it’s been decent — 115 OPS+, 13 extra-base hits and a able .163 ISO. Those numbers don’t jump out at you, though, and if we were taking an over in this precarious situation, we would want a hitter who projects a bit more extra-base power.
As is, OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder has Hamilton at 64% to fall shy of 1.5 total bases at -221 True Odds. The -154 Caesars odds are way off from that and makes this leg 5.2% EV.
Put it in the Yankees-Red Sox parlay, and we have a +223 total SGP with 9.17% expected value and a strong 33% chance of hitting.
MLB Parlay Today: +223 at Caesars Sportsbook
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