There is no better way to start off the weekend than hitting a 3x Underdog entry, and you get to watch baseball while collecting. We have a wide range of action to choose from as everyone is in play, including an incredibly favorable pitching matchup in one of the later games. Can the Phillies bounce back? Will the Yankees ever win again? These are important questions to ponder as we approach July. Tonight’s Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions begin in Boston.
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David Hamilton H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
Randy Vasquez hasn’t made it easy on the Padres. San Diego is in town opening up a three-game series at Fenway. David Hamilton saw a nice stretch of good early in the month but has been spotty as of late — even with one hit in each of his last two games. He also hasn’t played since Monday, so it’s his first return to the lineup. He has some decent attack numbers for pitching, and Vasquez can be a train wreck, but there’s one area too concerning to ignore — one that even the Padres can take advantage of with the lowly Vasquez on the bump.
Hamilton’s .264 xBA is rather good on the season. It essentially measures whether a batted ball becomes a hit. We are staying lower than 1.5 total bases here because Hamilton still has to make . The 24.4% strikeout rate is an area of self-induced error at the plate, enough for the Padres to keep him off the hit list. Even with a small crack and single, he stays below the projection. Thanks to the MLB pick’em tool, we find a 4.6% edge against the market. The implied -122 odds for lower than 1.5 total bases edge the -135 true price.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: David Hamilton Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
JP Sears H/L Than 3.5 Strikeouts
This is one tough matchup for the Oakland Athletics, even more so than their regular batch of tough matchups. There are fewer than five teams around MLB that can lay claim to being worse than Oakland, at least with their record. The A’s turn to JP Sears on the road against a team not likely to chase balls.
Sears has a 15.4% strikeout rate on the year, struggling no matter where he pitches. The Diamondbacks have more than their share of guys who won’t offer up the strikeout that easily — or at all — against a pitcher like Sears. Through volume of at-bats, Joc Pederson and Christian Walker are each at a 25% strikeout rate, but they won’t be overpowered and should see at-bats with runners on the bases.
Sears is facing an uphill battle where he can’t afford to make mistakes, nor can he ensure any stability if his team is down. Unless the A’s are punting this game away trying to rest up the bullpen, Sears won’t see enough time to get that fourth strikeout.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: JP Sears Lower Than 3.5 Strikeouts
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