The Houston Astros are going to do it again, aren’t they? They find themselves just one win away from returning to the World Series after being down 0-2 in this series against the Texas Rangers. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Rangers-Astros on Sunday, Oct. 22.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Sunday, Oct. 22
Rangers-Astros Player Prop Bets
When: 8:03 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
The hits + runs + RBIs market has been profitable for us this postseason, especially this series. Yordan Alvarez has cashed in four straight games while Jose Altuve cashed in three straight games. Take both if you’d like, which I will be doing, but I’ll turn to Altuve, who ultimately ended the Rangers season with one swing last game. He hit a three-run shot in the top of the 9th inning off closer José Leclerc.
I can’t dispute Nathan Eovaldi’s postseason pedigree. He’s one of the best to ever pitch in October. In 14 games, Eovaldi has a 2.87 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. Absolutely absurd numbers. Unfortunately for Eovaldi, the dynasty of the Houston Astros may have something to say. They saw him in Game 2 and put three runs on the board in six innings. While Alvarez tanked a 420-foot home run off Eovaldi in the 2nd inning, Altuve went hitless but made great on two balls. In the 3rd inning, Altuve rocketed a 101 mph groundout and 90 mph flyout. That’s encouraging enough for me to make this play.
Since that hitless Game 2, Altuve has six hits in three games, including two home runs and six runs. Leading off for the Astros, his runs prop is set at a playable price of +110 on BetMGM while FanDuel set the vig at -130. The familiarity for a veteran hitter like Altuve who has 10 hits in 29 at-bats, will pay dividends in a pivotal Game 6.
Best Rangers-Astros Player Prop Bet: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120 at BetMGM)
Rangers-Astros Home Run Pick
This series has been a home run party. Game 4 featured four home runs while Game 5 featured another four bombs. So, who do we target tonight? Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros and he’s been awful. That’s putting it kindly. He’s allowed nine earned runs this postseason in just seven innings pitched. He was a workhorse during the regular season, but the Astros can’t afford to wait on Valdez to return to form in a series clinching game and with a fresh bullpen. So, we’re going to back Texas Rangers RHB Mitch Garver.
Garver will be slated in the middle of the lineup hitting behind the loaded top of the lineup of the Texas Rangers. What does that mean exactly? It means Garver will see quality pitches, especially if runners are on base. Garver is very patient and poised at the plate. He ranks in the 98th percentile in chase percentage and 85th in xSLG. Targeting Garver against an LHP is where you want him. He hit .344 against LHP in the regular season while Valdez allowed 14 of his 19 home runs allowed this season to come off righties.
The best price you’re going to find for Garver is +46o on FanDuel. The rest of the market has settled at around +380.
Best Rangers-Astros Home Run Bet: Mitch Garver +460 at FanDuel
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