We have just one game on tap for MLB but it’s going to be must-watch television. The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to advance to the NLCS for the second consecutive season while the Atlanta Braves will have ace Spencer Strider on the mound to avoid elimination. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Braves-Phillies on Thursday, October. 12.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Thursday, Oct. 12
Braves-Phillies Player Prop Bets
When: 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Justin’s Targets: Bryce Harper
Last night was a movie for the city of Philadelphia and Bryce Harper. The “atta boy” chirp from Orlando Arcia after Game 3 must’ve struck a nerve with Harper, as he stared down Arcia at shortstop on both of his home run trots last night. It would’ve been wise if the Braves pitched around Harper last night like we envisioned, but oh well. We’re going right back to Harper against Spencer Strider, with the familiarity of seeing him in Game 1 paying dividends.
The hits/runs/RBI market is one that was introduced to the betting realm this season. Unfortunately, it is only available on DraftKings, BetMGM and non-major books. It allows bettors to back hitters who find the basepaths via a walk, hit by pitch or even an error and still cash. The total bases market is a nice pivot at a much better price but doesn’t have many outs to cash.
We’re used to seeing Harper priced at 2.5 hits/runs/RBI or 1.5 with vig on the over. Now, against one of the top pitchers in baseball, Harper is priced at +135 on BetMGM and +130 on DraftKings. It’s too good of a price to up against a pitcher against whom he just had success less than a week ago. The Braves will live or die with Strider tonight. Unless he gets into a lot of trouble early in the game, like last season at Citizens Bank Park during the playoffs, Strider will potentially see Harper three times and then hand it off to the bullpen. Nonetheless, Harper has been the hottest hitter in October the last two seasons alongside Yordan Alvarez and has cashed this player prop in all three games of this series.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+135 at BetMGM)
Braves-Phillies Home Run Pick
When: 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Justin’s Targets: Kyle Schwarber
Matt Olson and Kyle Schwarber were Nos. 1 and 2 this season in home runs. Both have yet to hit one in October. Something has to give. Olson will match up against LHP Ranger Suarez, who he most likely will see just twice. Schwarber, on the other hand, may get up to three at-bats against Strider. I’ll gladly take that with the history these two have.
Schwarber has one career home run off Strider, which came last season. Otherwise, Schwarber is a career 4-for-18 off the RHP. That’s pretty solid for a guy who hit below .200 this season. Tonight’s matchup will be Strider’s sixth game against the Phillies this season. That doesn’t bode well for him against a lineup that features plenty of power hitters and veteran hitters.
Best Braves-Phillies Home Run Bet: Kyle Schwarber +400 at DraftKings
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