ALDS Game 3’s are here. Action will start at 4:08 p.m. ET, with the Minnesota Twins listed as favorites against the Houston Astros. To follow, the Baltimore Orioles will look to avoid the sweep against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Tuesday, Oct. 10.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Tuesday, Oct. 10
Astros-Twins Player Prop Bets
When: 4:08 p.m. ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis
Justin’s Targets: Royce Lewis at FanDuel
Royce Lewis was made for October. He has been just what the Twins needed in the middle of their lineup, and in his last 10 games, Lewis is crushing the baseball. He’s hit six home runs and has cashed his hits/runs/RBI player prop in seven of those games.
Lewis will be matched up against RHP Christian Javier, who had a phonemical 2022 campaign with a 2.43 xERA (top 7% of the league) but has faltered this season. Last year, Javier’s strikeout stuff made him one of the top pitchers in the league. Fast forward to this season, and his strikeout rate has dropped by over 10%.
This will be the first time most of these Twins hitters face off against Javier, but this offense is playing its best ball at the right time. Carlos Correa seems to be worth every penny, and Max Kepler, who will be behind Lewis in the order, is hitting .340 against RHP in the last month. It’s a full fade train of Javier today, as I’ll also be on Twins moneyline, with the best line coming via OddsShopper’s tools.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140 at DraftKings)
We briefly spoke above about Max Kepler and his success against RHP recently. I feel comfortable backing him in the hits/runs/RBI department but would not advise paying the vig on both Twins hitters. Kepler is riding a nine-game hit streak with two home runs in his last 10 games. The books aren’t expecting a long outing from Javier. His outs line is set at 12.5 on all major books. With this being the season’s biggest game and off days in between, Kepler may see Javier just once. The bullpen, which has been rocked for a 5.87 ERA through two games, will get the ball and features primarily right-handed arms.
Kepler is smackdab right in the middle of an order that has crushed RHP. Since Sept. 1, the Twins are slugging at a top-5 rate, which includes hitting the third-most home runs during that span. Look for the left-handed batter to get great pitches to hit hitting in between Lewis and Correa.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Max Kepler (+430 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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