The MLB Playoffs roll on with the ALCS and NLCS both scheduled to be in action tonight. Three Wild Card teams have a shot at making the World Series, and the final division winner, the Houston Astros, find themselves in a one-game hole. Let’s dive right into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Monday, Oct. 16. For more picks and props, check out OddsShopper’s MLB shop pages.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Monday, Oct. 16
Rangers-Astros Player Prop Bet
When: 4:37 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Watch: FOX/FS1
Isaiah’s Target: Yordan Alvarez at Bet365
Texas RHP Nathan Eovaldi has been good, but can he keep this up? Through two playoff starts, he owns a 1.32 ERA and is yet to walk a batter. However, Eovaldi recorded a 3.63 ERA in the regular season and a 4.32 ERA across two regular-season starts against the Houston Astros. Eovaldi owns a 4.01 xERA (56th percentile) and a .237 xBA (59th percentile) this season, neither of which are all that impressive. His hot start to the playoffs seems more like a fluke than something he can sustain.
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Enter RHH Yordan Alvarez. Houston’s designated hitter has been one of baseball’s best bats this season, boasting a .299 xBA (97th percentile) and .625 xSLG (99th percentile). Alvarez has 11 career at-bats against Eovaldi, through which he is slashing an absurd .727/.714/1.273. That computes to eight hits, four extra-base hits and a home run — said another way, 1.3 bases per at-bat. Alvarez is +130 at Bet365 to record multiple bases this afternoon. If that book isn’t in your state, the +125 at BetMGM isn’t a bad deal.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 at Bet365
Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Pick
When: 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Watch: TBS
Isaiah’s Target: Kyle Schwarber at BetRivers
It might seem a little lazy to just recommend backing LHH Kyle Schwarber for today’s MLB home run pick, but sometimes, it’s best to just not overthink things. Schwarber has mashed a Phillies-high 47 actual and 42.6 expected home runs this season. A whopping 48 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Citizens Bank Park. He was held without a home run in the NLDS, but he mashed two balls that would’ve gone yard at some parks. Look for him to get the job done tonight.
Schwarber will face RHP Zac Gallen, against whom he has seven career at-bats. Although Gallen has limited Schwarber for the most part, the veteran slugger’s lone hit against the 28-year-old pitcher was a home run. Schwarber has beaten up RHPs this season for 32 home runs and a .201/.351/.497 slash line. Meanwhile, Gallen has underperformed against LHHs, coughing up 14 home runs and a .244/.294/.404 slash line. Schwarber is priced at +320 or shorter to go yard at most major public books, but some like BetRivers are hanging an off-market +380.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Kyle Schwarber +380 at BetRivers
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