Tonight I’ve locked in three positive expected value (+EV) with the best MLB strikeout prop bets.
Let’s dive into the action…
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Pitcher Props Today: Best Strikeouts Picks for Monday, August 12
MLB Strikeout Prop: Ky Bush Under 4.5 Strikeouts
The White Sox 24-year-old lefty struggled in his major league debut in Oakland. Bush allowed three runs on two hits, walked five batters and struck out three. His ERA came out to 6.75, while his xFIP settled at 8.45.
Now, a week later, he gets a showdown with the Yankees. New York brings in a lineup that’s hitting a 122 wRC+, a .337 wOBA and possesses a 21.7% strikeout rate against lefties.
Despite a small sample size, Bush’s 87% rate and 4.7% swinging-strike rate does not inspire confidence. Even in Triple-A he fell below average with rates of 80% and 9%, respectively.
OddsShopper’s MLB betting model gives this prop a 52% win probability, with true odds listed at -109. As of this morning, -104 is the best number in the market and OddsShopper grades this prop at a 2.2% expected value rating.
MLB Strikeout Prop: Ky Bush Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Ky Bush live odds page!
MLB Strikeout Prop: Bowden Francis Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Francis has primarily pitched out of the bullpen this season, but he does have five starts under his belt. Throughout those starts he’s averaged 4.8 strikeouts per outing.
However, his underlying metrics — 5.15 xERA, 4.49 xFIP, .350 xwOBA, and .214 xISO — suggest he may struggle. Francis also has a high rate of 81.4% and a modest swinging-strike rate of 9.6%. The Angels have a slightly below-average strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (23%), but given his troubling numbers and limited innings, they should be able to capitalize and have productive at-bats tonight.
MLB Strikeout Prop: Bowden Francis Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140 at Circa)
For the best price currently available, check out our Bowden Francis live odds page!
MLB Strikeout Prop: Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 Strikeouts
In two starts against his division foe, Abbott has thrown 11 innings, allowed eight earned runs, issued eight walks and struck out five. While Abbott’s overall season numbers look solid, his xFIP of 4.94 and SIERA of 4.83 suggest he’s been overperforming. His 80.4% rate and 9% swinging-strike rate this view.
The Cardinals have been particularly effective against Abbott and left-handed pitchers in general, with a 20.3% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Abbott has stayed under this strikeout prop in 15 of 23 starts. Given his matchup history and concerning metrics, I expect him to fall short again. OddsShopper’s MLB betting model gives this wager a 62% win probability. Although the juice is steep, so is my confidence.
MLB Strikeout Prop: Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Andrew Abbott total strikeouts live odds page!
