The Cardinals apparently didn’t watch Moneyball. Sacrifice bunting with their No. 3 hitter in the first inning against arguably the worst team in baseball? I mean, how friggin’ down bad can you be? And, of course, they scratch the run across with a two-out single. Then Frankie Montas loses all control — walks two guys after being up in the count and implodes for a three-run dong. Just an absolute WOAT night for no run first inning bets for us. Fire me into the sun.
Praise the lord Jesus that we’ve got a new slate of MLB games today, cuz we sure need it, and I’m rolling with three new yes/no run first inning bets today for Tuesday, April 16. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Let’s kick off Tuesday by targeting a game with a total of only 7.5 runs in the Pirates-Mets showdown. As you know, I’m not a believer in the Pirates despite their early success (11-6); and you damn sure know I don’t believe anything about this Mets team other than it’s trash.
While I don’t think Jose Quintana is a world-beater, I also know the Pirates have their fair share of issues hitting left-handed pitching.
Oneil Cruz is hitting a balmy .091 vs lefties this year; Andrew McCutchen is 0-for-10 against LHPs; and Connor Joe is batting just .227. These are three of their better, middle-of-the-order bats.
In a small sample of 70 ABs against Pirates hitters, Quintana does have 20 Ks, and has held them to a .200 average. So he’s shown some success.
His changeup has been his best pitch this season, which has been a pitch the projected top four in the Pirates lineup has struggled to hit historically.
So long as he can keep the walks to a minimum, the Pirates have enough swing-and-miss to allow him to minimize damage. Just get us the first three outs, Quintana.
Once Quintana, gets us through the top half of the first, we’ll be getting Pirates rookie Jared Jones finishing up the bottom half. And he’s been nothing short of fantastic this season.
The fella is boasting a 12.5 strikeout-per-nine-inning rate and has only walked TWO batters in his first 18 big league innings.
Jones can absolutely dial it up with his fastball, averaging 97 on his four-seamer, and can crank it up to close to triple-digits when he needs to get a little extra. So he has blow-by stuff when he needs it. We always love that when we need to get a strikeout with men on base to secure a no run first inning bet, and the Mets have plenty of strikeouts available with Pete Alonso, Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor — despite his ridiculously low 9% K rate so far this season.
The reason we’re looking at this NRFI bet today is we’re getting a virtual ace here in Jones against a weak Mets offense, and this game has a 7.5 total. If we’re looking at about 7 runs to be scored, I like our chances of one NOT coming in the first inning here.
Let’s roll with the Pirates-Mets no run first inning.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Pirates-Mets NRFI (-127 BetRivers)
Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We went with three no run first inning bets on Monday, and, to be fair, they all looked pretty good. I felt good about them at least. But, today, we’re going to root for some fun. We’re gonna fire up a YES run first inning bet in Minute Maid Park, and hope we get a YRFI with two high-powered offenses is the Braves and Astros.
Look, you don’t need me to sit here and write you an epoch on how good Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Matt Olson are. Those dudes are STUDS and will be STUDS all season long. They’re going to generate offense more often than not.
But, against right-handed pitching, the Braves rank No. 1 in:
- Average: .314
- OBP: .376
- SLG: .515
- OPS: .891
Astros pitcher Hunter Brown just happens to be … right handed. Go figure. And you’ll never guess which way his splits say he struggles. Give up? To the reverse side. Well, would you look at that. He’s a reverse-splits pitcher going against a team that mashes right-handed pitching.
And, if that didn’t do it for you, we have the Astros, who had scored eight or more runs in three straight games prior to last night’s game against Atlanta against a dusty Reynaldo Lopez who has an 0.75 ERA this season and an xFIP of 4.31.
We’re looking at a guy that has a 91.7% strand rate — meaning that almost 92% of the runners he’s allowed on base, he’s kept from scoring. That is WILDLY unsustainable.
As is that 0.0% home run/fly ball rate.
The books believe so as well. Check out how they’re pricing Yordan Alvarez in the home run market today. The best odds you can find on his home run prop today are at +265 at BetRivers, and they’re going as low as +215 at Caesars and +200 at Fliff.
And the OddsShopper model is showing a 26% expected win rate as well.
So, let’s target some suspect pitching here with a game total that looks pretty juicy here and might reach 10 by day’s end. Forget the no run first inning bet for a minute, let’s fire up the YRFI. Hell, let’s just get the leadoff Acuna dong and cash this baby with no sweat!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Braves-Astros YRFI (-130 Caesars)
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
This was our only cash on last night’s card. And it got pretttttty sweaty. I thought Randy Arrozarena had a tater on a hanger from Patrick Sandoval. But, it died just short. Thank god. Let’s run it back.
Let’s start with a guy I really like in Jose Soriano for the Angels. This dude can bring some cheese. I love dudes that can throw hard and bring some gas when it’s needed to get some big outs. His average fastball is 99.5 mph, and his sinker is 98 … so, yeah, the big fella can CHUCK IT.
If you last time out, he faced this same Rays team and ran into some issues. However, if we examine that outing a little bit closer, there were some weird things that happened. Is it copium on my part? Maybe.
But, check this out. Soriano was hit TWICE on back-to-back plays. And, once was directly after an injury delay.
Of course, what happens? He throws a wild pitch with the bases loaded and the Rays plate two runs immediately, and then score another on a sacrifice fly.
Three runs in the first and the NRFI is chalked before you can even say “WTF just happened?”
So, let’s just say that DOESN’T happen today. I know, WILD STUFF with me thinking that. The Rays definitely could have another inning like that, but I don’t think it’s likely. That feels like an outlier inning. If anything is more likely to go wrong, it’s that he walks a batter or two and THEN gets in trouble.
He did settle in for six strikeouts after the fact in that game, and I think he may have found something. It was his longest start to date, and his most pitches he’s thrown all season.
Aaron Civale will get us started in the top half, though, and he’s going to have to wiggle his way around the red-hot Mike Trout. And this guy seems to bet hitting everything out of the park right now.
Civale has introduced a new pitch into his mix in the sweeper, and has seen some decent success with a 20% whiff rate on it. But, what I really like to see is that he’s started to rely more heavily on his sinker and is inducing some weak with it. He’s getting swings and misses with it on occasion, which is great, but it’s also great for inducing groundballs and double-plays to end innings, which we love to see when going for NRFIs.
And that’s exactly what we’re looking at here. A no run first inning bet for -115 here feels like really good value, and I’m willing to get right back at it.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Angels-Rays NRFI (-115 DraftKings)
