We were some real Rick James type sh*t away from another sweep last night on our no run first inning bets. Tigers-Rays had Shawn Armstrong fall down on a delivery for a balk that moved runners up and allowed them to score on what would’ve been the double-play ball to end the inning. Truly incredible stuff. Luckily, the Rays hit a homer in the bottom half, so we can at least feel like we didn’t get totally shafted. Either way, a 1-1 night after something like that feels pretty, pretty, pretty good when it comes to NRFI picks.
It’s a super early slate of MLB games on Thursday, April 25, but, I’ve still got a pair of no run first inning bets for you today. So let’s get into these NRFI picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
It’s going to be a bit chilly in the Windy City today, and it appears that the wind might just be blowing in slightly from right center, which can be a nice little feather in our cap today when we’re checking out some no run first inning bets.
There’s a little bit of value to be had here on this NRFI yet, I believe, with us getting it at -124.
Javier Assad is on the mound for the Cubs, who I’m not the biggest fan of if we’re being totally transparent.
However, the projected total for this game is sitting at 8 runs, which comes a little bit of a surprise given the two teams and the park.
But, we also have to take into those weather conditions we talked about, and the fact that Houston has been struggling to score runs of late — it hasn’t scored more than 4 runs in a game in its last eight games.
There’s a chance with it being a day game after a night game Assad could face a bit of a watered down Astros lineup, which we’d love to see, but we can’t COUNT on that.
What we can likely count on is him limiting hard-hit balls, as he’s in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate this season, per Baseball Savant’s statcast data.
Both the ERA and FIP are pretty much in line with the xERA and xFIP, so he’s not getting overly lucky with anything he’s doing. This just feels like a spot where we can trust Assad to get us three outs in the first and maybe work his way through this Astros lineup once before getting into some real trouble.
Veteran Justin Verlander gets the ball for the Astros, who is making is second start of the season today. He got the no run first inning in his first start last time out against the Nationals, which I didn’t think he would be able to do honestly.
Today he gets a Cubs lineup sans Cody Bellinger, who is now on the IL with a rib injury. So there’s one less left-handed power bat we have to worry about in the lineup to potentially ruin our NRFI.
Nico Hoerner hasn’t tapped into the pop he was promising quite yet, and Mike Tauchman and Ian Happ don’t really scare me all that much. And even if the Cubs want to try to get firsky on the bases, the Astros have a way to mitigate the stolen base game in Yainer Diaz behind the plate — who is tied for No. 2 overall in catcher pop time at 1.87 seconds.
I think Verlander can sew it up here in the bottom of the first for us, and cash this no run first inning pick for us in Chicago.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Astros-Cubs NRFI (-124 BetRivers)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We’ve gone to the Blue Jays-Royals NRFI well in two of the three games so far in this series, and we’re going to make three of four now. Because, we’re firing the no run first inning bet here with Jose Berrios and Cole Ragans on the mound in a game that has a 7.5 total and winds blowing in nearly 20 mph.
Ragans is 3-2 on NRFIs this season, so he’s been a little bit up and down in the first inning. However, we’ve seen this Blue Jays offense sputter in the first inning quite often so far this year — and especially in this series. His xERA (3.42) is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA (4.32), so he’s been pitching better than what the results have shown.
Not only that, but his chase rates and whiff rates are both looking incredibly strong as well as you can see in the statcast data I’ve provided to you from Baseball Savant.
I mean, the fella has a .414 BABIP against. That can’t last. He’s getting unlucky, and we’re going to be on the good side of that today.
Berrios has been lights out of late. He’s 4-1 on no run first inning chances this season, and cashed four NRFIs in a row. His ERA is a ridiculous 0.85, which obviously isn’t going to hold up all season, but I think it can hold up for at least ONE more inning here. Especially given these weather conditions.
We’re looking at some pretty tough elements here in KC, and I’ll be honest, as much as I like both of these pitchers today, the conditions are just as much a factor in it. It’s tough to play baseball and score runs when it’s colder and the wind is blowing in that hard.
Let’s get one last NRFI in here at Kansas City, and cash another no run first inning bet to extend our streak to 14-4, and head into Friday with our pockets lined with a little more cash.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Royals NRFI (-120 FanDuel)
