There’s nothing worse than having a 2-0 day on no run first inning bets, and then giving it ALL BACK the next day. That’s what we did on Saturday. A frustrating day of NRFI and YRFI picks. But, we’re back with two more no run first inning picks and predictions today for Monday, April 29, and we’re squeezing the last bit of value out of one that is likely to move to the -140/-150 range by the end of the day. Let’s dive into these no run first inning bets, friends.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We’ve got some NRFI revenge to extract on this Monday, and it starts in the Big Apple in this Cubs-Mets game. We’re looking at matchup of Luis Severino vs Jameson Taillon and a projected total of 8 runs, so a decently low total in a park that is definitely known more for mitigating runs. So we’re off to a good start so far.
Severino treated us right the last time we fired him up for a no run first inning bet, and he’s 4-1 on NRFIs so far this season — including cashing four straight.
So far this season, Severino has basically been a strikeout-per-inning guy (26 Ks in 27 IP), and is rocking a 2.67 ERA. The FIP and xFIP are basically in lock step (3.33/3.51), so we’re not looking at anything that’s pointing to much luck.
In our case, we’re only looking for a NRFI — just no runs in the first inning. And the righty has been able to deliver, especially with the average velocity on the fastball and sinker still in the 95-96 mph range. So he can still dial it up to 97-98 if he needs to.
And when we need a strikeout to lock down a NRFI with a guy or two on base — god forbid we be in that situation — it’s nice to be able to have that as an escape route.
And the Cubs have a few guys who like to swing and miss as we’ve discussed in prior columns — Ian Happ, Michael Busch and Cristopher Morel are all capable of striking out over 20% of the time.
I can’t believe we’ve finally reached this point, but we’re here and it doesn’t really feel ALL that great. But we’re going to put some coin on Jameson Taillon to get us a no run first inning. It’s mostly a play against the Mets offense in a park that isn’t great for offense, and not a play on Taillon himself.
However, as much as I love to hate on Taillon, I’m going to give him his flowers, because right now, he’s grading out with some decent rankings on Baseball Savant statcast data.
The xERA ranks in the 91st percentile, which is astounding; and the .219 xBA is somewhat mind blowing to me as well. But, most shocking of all is the BB% — just 4.5%, which has never been a Taillon-ism.
If he can keep the walks down, we know he has the pedigree and stuff to succeed. So this could be the year it finally comes together for Taillon.
And, like I said earlier with Severino, we don’t need a complete game shutout from him, we just need three outs in the first inning with no run.
Taillon is 2-0 on NRFIs this year, cashing both his starts against the Marlins and Astros. He’s not facing a world-beating offense in the Mets tonight, so I think he’s going to stand a good chance of cashing another no run first inning tonight.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cubs-Mets NRFI (-120 Bet365)
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I mentioned earlier how we were going to be squeezing that absolute LAST BIT OF VALUE out of this no run first inning bet. And this is exactly what I’m talking about.
This Twins-White Sox NRFI bet today is one that is priced at -130 right now, and by first pitch, I assume it will be -145 or -150 at every book. And, by then, it will be virtually unbetable. There will be no value left on that bet.
But, at -130, there’s still some value meat left on this NRFI bone for us. And we’re gonna eat it up.
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So we’re getting Joe Ryan against Garrett Crochet tonight in Chicago, which, if you said this two weeks ago, it would be a super headliner matchup. However, Crochet has been touched up recently and people have soured on the young lefty Crochet.
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Well, everyone except your boy. We’re still going to ride with the young fella.
He can still bring the cheese and knows how to get the strikeouts. And this Minnesota offense, well … it doesn’t really scare me all that much. Especially when you consider the fact that these Twins have 30 ABs against Crochet this season and they’ve ended in 16 strikeouts.
We’re just looking for three outs in the top of the first for a NRFI here, and despite Crochet’s struggles of late, I think he’s going to right the ship and get us through the first here. It might be a tad sweaty, but Byron Buxton and Manuel Margot have both been known to expand the strike zone, so that could REALLY help our guy out.
Our cover boy, Joe Ryan? This fella has been tremendous. I’m talking a 3.4% walk rate, 32.8% strikeout rate and 2.27 xERA kind of tremendous — all of those rank in the Top 8% of baseball.
He’s only 3-2 on no run first innings, but with the numbers I just shared, it feels like that’s more variance that those runs came in the first inning than anything else. He’s been flat out dominant.
And you don’t need me to sit here and tell you how this White Sox team needs to be relegated due to how bad it’s been. They rank dead last in OBP and SLG% against right-handed pitching this season, and that’s after putting up 6 runs on righties Aaron Civale and 5 runs on Zach Eflin over the weekend. So, you do the math.
We trust the numbers, we trust the data and we always trust the process here. And with that, we trust the the Twins-White Sox no run first inning bet today to bring us to the window and cash us out.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Twins-White Sox NRFI (-130 Bet365/Caesars)
