We’re back! I missed all of you dirty, lovely degenerates, and our little first-inning sweats, too. The beaches in Mexico were nice, but let me tell you, that humidity hits different. It puts the sweat of a no run first inning bet to shame. Especially when you’re wearing a three-piece suit in the 5:30 p.m. sun standing in front of like 100 people.
Also, peep this photo from the after party where, somehow, your boy is acting a fool the most of anyone in this entire photo, but is the only 100% sober one at the wedding.
That’s just how we roll, baby. We keep the juice flowing hard whether it’s in the NRFI streets, or in the wedding streets in Mexico.
We’ve got a fresh MLB slate, and I’ve got three no run first inning bets today for Monday, April 15. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Shopping for the best line on no run first inning bets is the most important things you can do, and I’m about to show you why. DraftKings is selling you this Reds-Mariners NRFI bet for -145 odds, while you can get it for -120 at Bet365, which is just an absurd value. So, while I think it’s virtually unbettable at -145, it’s definitely in our wheelhouse at -120, so we’re firing it up.
The projected game total for this Reds-Mariners game is a ridiculous 7 runs right now, which you just absolutely love to see when targeting a no run first inning bet like we are here today.
You always want to look for low total expected runs, and games that aren’t expected to bring much offense.
George Kirby is starting for the Mariners, and he’s 2-1 on NRFIs this season. Kirby is known for pounding the zone and not walking dudes, which he’s continued to do this season.
He has an 8.16 ERA through three starts, so that looks ROUGH. However, he has an xERA of 3.67 — or, an expected ERA, which basically means that’s what his ERA SHOULD be based on the quality of he’s given up on batted balls.
Just something to think about before you totally tune me out.
What’s one thing I’ve drilled into your heads throughout last season and so far this season when we’re trying to find ways to win no run first inning picks? Strikeouts. We LOVE strikeouts.
And what do the Mariners do the third-most in baseball? Strike out. Yes. In fact, they’ve done it 167 times so far this season.
Now, granted, our old friend Frankie Montas isn’t exactly a strikeout master, but, the Mariners can make a lot of guys look like Randy Johnson in his prime.
Montas still has some giddy on his fastball and can crank it up to about 95-96 when he needs to. But his best pitch so far this season has been his splitter, which has a 38.7% whiff rate.
With the low total in the park that helps suppress offense, we’re taking the no run first inning bet here.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Reds-Mariners NRFI (-120 Bet365)
St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland A’s | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
This Cardinals team is just a total underperforming drag. With guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman, they should be MUCH better than what they are, but they’re not. And we’re going to target them while they’re down and fire up another NRFI here in Oakland.
The small-sample crowd will love this one: the Cardinals are 22nd in first-inning runs this season, averaging just .38 runs per first inning. Oakland? They’re tied for 20th — .44 runs per first inning.
Obviously, we’re only 16 games into the season, so draw from that what you want, but, it’s at least worth noting that both of these teams are struggling offensively.
Sonny Gray will make his second appearance for the Cardinals this season after throwing five scoreless innings against the Phillies last time out. He looked pretty strong in that outing, where he struck out five over five innings. And that was against a much tougher offense.
Oakland trots out Ross Stripling, which can be a bit scary at times for NRFIs — not gonna lie. Stripling has been knocked around by the Rangers and Guardians this season, but I’m willing to give him a for the Rangers. That’s arguably the best offense in the AL, and maybe all of baseball.
He doesn’t strike a ton of dudes out, but the Cardinals have been helping pitchers out with that of late. They’ve been swinging at more pitches out of the zone and have struck out 137 times this season. Stripling’s main issue is walks, and St. Louis doesn’t draw a ton, ranking in the bottom 7 of the league in walks this season.
We’re going to know REALLY EARLY on this one. If Stripling can keep his control in the top of the first and not allow free es, I think we’re in the clear on this no run first inning bet.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cardinals-A’s (NRFI -120 DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I love the OddsShopper research tools because they’ll do the digging for you and find you the best odds for bets. Much like it did for this third and final no run first inning bet today.
This Angels-Rays no run first inning bet is listed anywhere from -115 to -130, and if you would have just looked at ESPN Bet or BetRivers, or maybe somewhere else like BetMGM, you’d have gotten far worse odds.
But, since you used the OddsShopper line shopping tools, it took you mere seconds to see that DraftKings was giving you the best odds for the Angels-Rays NRFI at -115.
So, naturally, we’re going to take those odds at DraftKings and run with them.
Because, why would we buy a car for a certain price at once place, when another place is offering the same exact car for a cheaper price just half a block down the road?
You just don’t up that value.
Zach Eflin toes the rubber for the Rays, and he’s 2-1 on NRFIs this season. Ironically, the one NRFI he lost was against this very Angels team in his last start. So, he’s on that revenge NRFI narrative.
Eflin is another one of the guys who doesn’t let guys on via walks, which we love. He makes dudes earn it via hits, and he has some decent strikeout stuff on top of it. He’s struck out five guys in all of his three starts this season.
The xERA for Eflin is about 2 points lower than his actual ERA, so I think we’re looking at some positive regression as well. And against an Angels offense that is pretty anemic outside of Mike Trout, I think we’re looking pretty good here for a no run first inning here with Eflin. It’s the bottom half of the inning the COULD BE a little dicey.
Patrick Sandoval isn’t usually my typical NRFI bet guy. However, he’s shown some increase in his strikeout stuff through three starts this season, raising his K/9 to 10.95, which really caught my eye. He’s throwing the slider DRASTICALLY less, and upped the sinker. So, there’s plausible explanation for WHY this could be happening instead of just noise.
The Rays do strike out more than league average, but they can hit lefties, so, like I said, this could be a bit dicey. But, I think at -115 we’re still getting good enough value here to take a shot here.
The game total is only 8, so we’re looking at a relatively normal total here and nothing too high. Let’s fire it up and make it a trio of no run first inning bets here today!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Angels-Rays NRFI (-115 DraftKings)
