A full slate of MLB games on Friday gives us a slew of good no run first inning bets today, and we’re honing in on a few NRFI picks today that are sticking out at some SERIOUS value plays. We had a nice 2-0 night on NRFI bets on Wednesday, so let’s build off that and take some of that good “mo” into our no run first inning picks and predictions for Friday, May 3rd.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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We’re officially over 30+ games through the MLB season, and the Rays offense still hasn’t looked, well, competent. And we know the Mets have their own struggles So, we’re going back to the NRFI well here — especially at this value number DraftKings gave us — in this matchup tonight for Mets-Rays.
Let’s call a spade a spade. The surface-level numbers for Rays starter Aaron Civale look pretty bad.
In 32 innings pitched, he’s worked his way to a 5.06 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and given up a home run in all but one start (six HRs total).
But, the surface-level numbers can lie. And I think they’re kind of big-fat dirty liars. He’s pitching to an xERA that is nearly 2 runs lower than his actual ERA (3.22 xERA), and is still racking up a 30.4% CSW (called strike + swinging strike percentage).
Civale has been good at limiting hard this year, which makes his 5.06 ERA a bit surprising.
But, this should be a good matchup for him, as the Mets have the third-lowest hard- percentage against right-handed pitching so far this season. Just 26.8% of the time they’re making hard off righties, and only the Guardians and Tigers are worse in that department.
He’s 4-2 on NRFIs, this season, make it 5-2 and get us to the bottom half of the inning, sir.
The Rays offensive woes have been well-documented this season, averaging just 3.75 runs per game and getting slow starts from Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena.
We have to take advantage of that while we can, even if it is the not-so-scary Jose Quintana on the mound for the Mets. He’s 5-1 on his no run first inning chances this season, so he’s been able to get it done in the NRFI department in 2024 … and that’s all we care about.
The Rays have struggle mightily against left-handed pitching — er, any pitching really — this season, having the sixth-worst wOBA in baseball (.282) and a wRC+ well under 100 (86). For a team that has been notorious for murking lefties, the .323 slugging and .082 ISO this season are a far cry from what we know them to be.
So, I’m willing to take my shot on the NRFI here, even with the dusty Quintana against the Rays. And if they beat me, they beat me. I’ll tip my cap to them for finally breaking out of the slump.
But at -105 value, I can’t up this no run first inning bet today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mets-Rays NRFI (-105 DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
When this no run first inning line for Angels-Guardians opened at -110 on DraftKings, I was a bit surprised. Given that there’s no Mike Trout in the Angels lineup anymore and we’re only facing a projected total of 8 runs in what might be some sketchy weather?
I can’t say no to that.
If we take a quick look at what Guardians starter Tanner Bibee is best at, it’s getting swings-and-misses — mostly on his changeup and slider.
That 30.9% whiff rate is nice, and so is that 26.3% strikeout rate.
You know, what we always love to say in this column, “whenever we’re looking at NRFI bets, we love when guys get get swings and misses, and strikeouts when we need them.”
And that’s precisely what makes this a good matchup against the Angels tonight.
Against right-handed pitching this season, the Angels are striking out one in every four at-bats — or 25% of the time for those of you who need the math done for you. That puts them in the bottom 5 in baseball in that category. And, on top of that, they’re without their best player to help them generate offense.
I feel pretty good about Bibee’s chances of securing the NRFI here. After all, he is 5-1 on no run first innings this season — though some have been a true sweat.
And when we’re talking about sweaty NRFIs, Jose Soriano might be the posterchild for a sweaty NRFI.
Soriano is 2-2 on his no run first inning opportunities, but has settled in nicely after his first start of the season on April 10.
We’re looking at a guy who has an AVERAGE fastball velocity of 99.1 mph, and complements it with a sinker, and has a knuckle curve that has nearly a 40% whiff rate.
While the Guardians aren’t known to strike out a ton, Soriano’s stuff just hits different, as the kids say, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he blew away a batter or two in the first inning. Though, he might put a guy or two on. So, it could get a bit dicey.
However, even if he Soriano does allow a runner or two, his ridiculous 55.9% groundball rate could help him wiggle out of a jam with a double-play ball, and that’s always a nice Plan B or Plan C to have in our back pocket.
We’re rooting against fun tonight and riding with the Angels-Guardians no run first inning bet tonight. But have a towel handy as this one might get a biiiiit sweaty.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Angels-Guardians NRFI (-110 DraftKings)
