It’s a great day for dingers — not only is it MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get half off your first week or month… just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, May 21
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson is one of my two favorite home bets today. The budding star is slashing .271/.351/.610 on the season with a .280 xBA (83rd percentile) and a .562 xSLG (95th percentile). His 16 actual and 14.6 expected home runs both lead the MLB.
Tonight, Henderson and the Baltimore Orioles will take on RHP Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals. Lynn is known as a pumpkin due to his struggles with power — he coughed up the most actual and expected home runs in the MLB last year.
While Lynn has done a better job of limiting the long ball this year, he still isn’t great. Sure, he has only coughed up six actual and 6.2 expected home runs, but neither his .252 xBA allowed nor his .443 xSLG allowed are very encouraging.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette and the Toronto Blue Jays get to face the Chicago White Sox tonight. It’s been a tough season for both Bichette and his team, as the veteran shortstop is slashing a bad .230/.289/.333 while his Blue Jays are well below .500. I don’t expect him to turn things around tonight.
Our bet365 to warrant a wager:
Bichette is -120 to stay under 1.5 total bases at bet365 but nowhere else. Most public books have his line priced between -125 and -140, with two public books charging -157. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at -127.
This line renders as a MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
If you can find a bet trading for odds longer than its true odds, you know it’s a Kelly Criterion and your bankroll.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Bo Bichette total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker
The Houston Astros get to host the Los Angeles Angels and RHP Griffin Canning in a favorable matchup for them tonight. It hasn’t been smooth sailing in Houston this year, but that’s no fault of Kyle Tucker, who is slashing .288/.421/.618 thus far. Tucker’s .299 xBA (92nd percentile) and .588 xSLG (96th percentile) are both elite.
Tucker will also benefit from facing a RHP. He is slashing .296/.433/.630 against opposite-handed pitchers this season with 16 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. Meanwhile, Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, allowing them to slash .294/.350/.505 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs.
This one is in Minute Maid Park, and we should see 14 mph winds blowing out through center field tonight in Houston. The 85-degree weather and 72% humidity also stand to help carry the ball out of the park. Tucker is slashing .315/.466/.696 at his home stadium with 17 extra base hits and eight home runs. While he owns only 10.9 expected home runs, he has 15 expected home runs in Houston.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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