It was a clean sweep for yesterday’s article, but the full card didn’t have as great of a day. Still, I’m very optimistic about tonight’s action, and you can access my full betting cards by subscribing to $17.30 (33% off) with code “VIBES”. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, August 10. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, August 10
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
This is neither the perfect matchup nor the perfect stadium for Gunnar Henderson to go yard today, but much of my reasoning here comes down to the absurd price we’re getting. Henderson will cost you only +625 at BetMGM to go yard, which, for a player who is averaging 0.23 xHR per game, is far too kind. Said another way, although Henderson is averaging an xHR in 22.5% of his games, his implied odds of going yard are just 13.8% today.
Henderson will take on opener RHP Drew Rasmussen today, who we’ve only seen for 2 IP this season. They were two good innings, as Rasmussen sports a 0.00 ERA and 0.12 xERA, but they also came in a relief appearance versus St. Louis. Henderson should get an at-bat against Rasmussen and is slashing .297/.372/.578 versus RHPs.
Once Rasmussen exits, it’s likely LHP Tyler Alexander working in bulk relief. Alexander’s 5.43 ERA and 4.91 xERA aren’t nearly as impressive. He owns a .269 xBA (19th percentile) and 4.9% walk rate (92nd), both of which help our case here. The lefty-on-lefty matchup gives me some pause, but his .254/.294/.429 slash line allowed isn’t great, and Henderson’s .248/.368/.473 line versus LHPs is solid.
After Rasmussen and Alexander, it’s up to a Tampa bullpen that ranks 14th in hits allowed (376) and second in home runs allowed (60). Let’s trust Henderson to go yard (+625 at BetMGM). The odds are far too friendly for a slugger of Henderson’s caliber, even if he is no longer leading off.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson +625 atGunnar Henderson home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Roddery Munoz
The San Diego Padres are in loanDepot Park to face the Miami Marlins this afternoon, and they’re bringing their high-powered, strikeout-avoidant offense into this one. San Diego leads the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.7). They also lead the MLB in strikeout rate versus RHPs on the year (17.8%) and since the Luis Arraez deal (16.7%). They’re second since the All-Star Break (16.2%).
The Marlins will trot out struggling RHP Roddery Munoz, whose bloated 5.68 ERA masks an even worse 6.45 xERA (1st percentile). Munoz’s 19% strikeout rate (23rd percentile) isn’t terrible, but the possibility he gets batted around and leaves the game earlier is higher than most other starting pitchers. Of Munoz’s last six starts, four saw him fail to clear 3.5 total strikeotus.
Those are my projection-based reasons for placing this bet attractive to me, but I have some market-based reasons as well. If you don’t know what market-based betting is, read our guide to positive expected value (+EV):
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate the expected value of every wager.
Here, the true odds of Munoz staying under 3.5 total strikeouts come out to -152, which is higher than the -140 odds we’re finding at BetMGM. This isn’t a game-breaking edge, but it’s a meaningful one — over the long term, bets like this one will turn you a profit.
So how much of a profit can you expect to make from tailing our results page. As of today, our model has dug up 2,161 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 4 or higher on the year. A very nice 1,243 of those bets won, yielding those who tailed a 12.6% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Roddery Munoz Under 3.5 Strikeouts -140 at Roddery Munoz total strikeouts live odds page!
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