After a solid weekend slate, the MLB is offering up a busy — but not jam-packed — Monday card. A few teams get off days this evening, giving us 13 games to choose from for our best MLB bets today. I’ll have a handful of picks for tonight’s slate, and you can find the full card on expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, July 22.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, July 22
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill
Sometimes the smartest bet on the board is the most obvious. That’s what we’ve got with Tyler O’Neill in Coors Field today. The Boston Red Sox are coming off a demoralizing sweep versus the Los Angeles Dodgers but will get to take out their frustrations on a bad Rockies team, and starter LHP Austin Gomber isn’t very imposing.
Gomber’s 4.78 xERA (19th percentile), .277 xBA (11th) and 6% walk rate (79th) make him a juicy target for batter props. His rate of 1.3 xHR/9 allowed isn’t game-breakingly terrible, but his 1.6 HR/9 and 1.4 xHR/9 in Coors Field paint a slightly worse picture. Gomber’s neat 3.27 ERA at home just doesn’t seem sustainable.
Splits are another key part of the equation here. O’Neill is slashing a dominant .298/.427/.619 versus LHPs with seven home runs in 84 at-bats. Meanwhile, Gomber is allowing RHBs to slash .281/.331/.455 with 12 home runs in 310 at-bats. He hasn’t given up a hit to O’Neill across a six at-bat sample, but I’m betting that will change tonight.
I’m trusting O’Neill for multiple bases (+275 at BetMGM) tonight. The weather calls for a slight breeze in this evening, but with O’Neill having mashed 17 balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Coors Field and owning a .487 xSLG (87th percentile), he’s hard to up at those odds.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Hunter Greene
The injury-riddled Atlanta Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds tonight, and while it feels weird to trust their lineup to do anything at this point, we’re putting our faith in them to simply not strike out that much against RHP Hunter Greene, who sports a 27.6% strikeout rate (82nd percentile).
From a projections-based standpoint, fading Greene makes sense because he averages 6.6 strikeouts per game and we’re getting him in the plus money to stay below the 6.5-strikeout threshold. He also averages slightly fewer strikeouts per game on the road.
But most of our edge on this MLB player prop bet stems from a market-based approach. Greene sits at FanDuel:
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then generates a breakeven price for each bet, which we call “true odds.” Once that’s done, we can figure out how much expected value we’re getting on that bet.
In this case, Greene’s true odds of staying under 6.5 total strikeouts come in at +103. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
So far this season, our model has identified 1,915 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher with at least two hours remaining before game start. Of those tickets, 1,078 were winners, yielding those who tailed a nice 10.4% ROI — if you played daily, just imagine the compounding returns!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Hunter Greene total strikeouts live odds page!
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