After the four-day All-Star Break, the MLB rolls into the second half of the season with an exciting slate of action that gets underway in the early afternoon. I won’t have a ton of bets for today’s games, especially since not every team will take the field today, but you can find the full card on expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, July 19.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, July 19
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Pete Alonso
It’s been a cold spell for Pete Alonso. His dismal showing at the Home Run Derby only made this that much clearer, as he mashed just 12 home runs to finish seventh out of eight competitors. But today’s matchup against RHP Edward Cabrera is a great spot for Alonso to bounce back, and we’re getting him at a major discount to do so.
Alonso, despite his struggles, still owns a .248 xBA (39th percentile) and .452 xSLG (70th) on the year. His 75.1 mph bat speed (91st) and 11.7% barrel rate (81st) remain near the top of the MLB, and he has hit a total of 19.5 expected home runs this year — although only 15 of those would’ve cleared the fences at loanDepot Park.
Much of this pick comes down to the matchup against Cabrera. In 14 at-bats, Alonso has racked up three hits — all of which were home runs. Cabrera is allowing an awful 2.7 xHR/9 this season, and while not all of his peripherals are bad, his 15.3% barrel rate allowed (1st) and 47.2% hard-hit rate allowed (4th) are just straight-up awful.
Alonso’s home run odds (+600 at BetMGM) have gotten too long due to his cold spell, as have his odds of recording multiple bases (+165 at DraftKings). Let’s split a unit between the two markets and hope he can go yard against Cabrera for a fourth time. Even if he can’t, Miami’s bullpen has allowed the fifth-most hits (347), possibly helping us get those extra bases.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Pete Alonso home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Zach Eflin
The Tampa Bay Rays will visit the New York Yankees tonight, and it’s RHP Zach Eflin taking the bump for them today. Although Eflin owns just a 5-6 record and a 3.99 ERA, his 3.24 xERA (78th percentile) and Tampa Bay’s disappointing offensive season suggest both numbers should be better. Still, we’re fading him tonight.
Eflin’s 18.9% strikeout rate (26th percentile) is pedestrian, and while it does mark a major fall-off from last season’s 26.5%, it’s much more in line with the 20.8% he posted in 2022 and the 22.4% he posted in 2021. He now faces a Yankees lineup that avoid strikeouts well, ranking 10th in strikeouts taken per game (8) and ninth in strikeout rate versus RHPs (20.9%).
Ultimately, much of our edge comes down to the market. Eflin will cost you positive expected value (+EV) for the +110:
To find +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market to generate a calculate a breakeven price for each bet, which we call “true odds.” Once that’s done, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, Eflin’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts come out to +105. That means the odds we’re getting at Fanatics warrant a wager! Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
So far this year, our model has identified 1,229 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher with at least two hours until game start. We cashed 697 of those tickets for a very nice 11.6% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Zach Eflin total strikeouts live odds page!
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