I was off on Thursday, but Wednesday’s story scored a 2-0 sweep, cashing an over for Cal Raleigh’s total bases (missing on his home run) and an under for Clayton Kershaw’s total strikeouts. The full card went checkout, for every bet. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, August 2. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, August 2
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan is trading for odds of between +950 (9.5%) and +1700 (5.6%) to go yard today. That’s a market inefficiency if I’ve ever seen one. Pinnacle, a sharp book, isn’t even taking action on this, which is likely why the market has yet to settle on a price.
This pick is mostly about the matchup. Kwan will take on RHP Dean Kremer, who is allowing a .228/.319/.462 slash line to LHBs like Kwan, which includes 14 extra-base hits and 10 home runs over a 145 at-bat sample. Kwan himself is slashing .600/.600/.800 versus Kremer with one such base hit himself.
Kremer has struggled mightily with power this season, coughing up just over 2 xHR/9. If Kremer played every game at Cleveland’s Progressive Field, that rate would jump to a whopping 2.2 xHR/9. Of course, Kwan is more of a hitter, but he does have 10.5 xHR (and 12 xHR at Progressive Field).
Kwan’s rate of 0.13 home runs per game would suggest his home run odds should be in the ballpark of +650, but we’re obviously getting a much better deal than that with the +1700 at BetMGM.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Steven Kwan +1700 at Steven Kwan home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Tarik Skubal
The Kansas City Royals have been a cheat code for strike out unders. They lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.7). They’re also tied for the lowest strikeout rate versus LHPs at 17.3%, a number they have improved to a league-bets 14.4% since June 1st. LHP Tarik Skubal has been exceptional this year, but not even he can overcome this matchup.
But enough of my projection-based notes, take a look at the market-based edge we’re getting at Caesars:
If you don’t know what a market-based edge means, check out our guide to positive expected value (+EV) here to warrant a wager.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 Strikeouts +112 at Clayton Kershaw total strikeouts live odds page!
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