We’re down to just one MLB game tonight as the Wild Card round has produced three sweeps: the San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers all took care of business in two games, leaving only the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers in action tonight. We’ll explore our top MLB player prop picks and predictions for today, Thursday, October 3 in this space. The tools we’re discussing are MLB player prop betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Thursday, October 3
MLB Player Prop Picks & Predictions for Today: Thursday, October 3
When you’re betting on the MLB — or any sport, really, what is your process? Do you look for can’t-miss bets that you think have a 100% chance of winning, or do you simply try to find an edge and size your bet accordingly? The latter strategy is the one real profession bettors use, and it’s easy to find that edge with Portfolio EV.
Unlike projections-based sports betting tools, 12.2% ROI!
To help you place more bets for less money — with a meaningful edge — here are three MLB player props from our tool:
These three lines were at the top of the board on Portfolio EV by the time of publication. Note that two are longshot home run bets. While the bet sizing is based on a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll, which means we advise wagering less than 1% of what you have to risk on these props.
Make sure to check this link for additional free +EV MLB bets. We give out the top pick on the board for free whenever s visit, so if anything is popping with more edge, you’ll see it! But to build an actual portfolio — and to build it quicky — get our tools for free just by ing with a partner site!
So, why does the MLB betting model like these props? It works by indexing the odds from across the market. With that information, we can generate the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet. If we spot a book offering a better for longer than that price, it has +EV.
That leads us to the home run props for Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. Their odds at FanDuel — +470 and +630, respectively — are longer than at Pinnacle, a sharp book, where they’re +363 and +523, respectively. Most public books have Lindor at around +350 and Nimmo around +450.
Lastly, the model also things a small wager on Tobias Myers to stay under 4.5 total strikeouts is a sharp bet — at least for the -146 available at FanDuel. The model is 11,958-10,355 (4.8%) on all strikeout props with an OS Rating of 0 or higher.
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