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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: L.A. Superstar Goes Yard
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Oakland Athletics again tonight. Last night’s contest was an ugly beatdown — the Dodgers were up by seven runs before the end of the second inning. Oakland’s starter, LHP Hogan Harris, coughed up nine hits and eight earned runs before exiting in the third. It’s safe to expect more of the same tonight with LHP J.P. Sears on the mound — Sears has allowed the second-most actual (25) and expected (27.8) home runs in the majors. His 4.09 ERA and 4.59 xERA also make him a worthy fade.
We’re targeting LHB Freddie Freeman from L.A. because of his dominance against same-handed pitchers. Freeman has 44 hits, 22 extra-base hits and 11 home runs against LHPs this season, good for an elite 1.080 OPS. Despite ranking fourth on the Dodgers in actual (21) and expected (20.2) home runs, he leads the team in both weighted on-base average, or WOBA, at .421, and expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .421. He also owns an elite .328 xBA. Freeman gets a boost from steady 10 mph winds blowing out through right field, which, as a LHB, he naturally favors.
Some books are offering a better deal on this than others. It can be tough to evaluate Sears against LHBs because he has only 80 at-bats against them this year, but five (6.3%) produced home runs. With every other book listing this at +370 (21.3%) or shorter, let’s lock in the +390 (20.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure to add the over for Freeman’s total bases, which you can buy at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings. Freeman may not have a home run in his last five games, but he recorded at least two bases in four of those appearances.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +390 at FanDuel
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels | 9:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: J.P. Crawford at FanDuel
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While Crawford may not be the world’s most powerful hitter, this game sets up well for him. He’ll take on RHP Shohei Ohtani, who, while doubtlessly elite, has struggled with the long ball. Ohtani has allowed 18 actual and 17.9 expected home runs this season. LHBs like Crawford have ed for 11 home runs against Ohtani. All nine of Crawford’s home runs have come against RHPs as well. He has even gone yard against Ohtani before. In a hitter-friendly Angel Stadium with the wind blowing out, Crawford is a juicy target at this price.
That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +1052 (8.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +1300 (7.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.P. Crawford +1300 at FanDuel
