Yesterday’s expert MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday, May 29
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday, May 29
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper for every pick!
@jazzrazdfs – Run Line – TOR @ CWS: It’s never hard to justify picking against the White Sox who currently are running away with the worst team in the league award. They sit at 15-41 and are 40-plus runs worse than the second-worst team in run differential.
There aren’t a lot of positives to say about them, and today doesn’t change much. They are at home against the Blue Jays and bring Chris Flexen to the mound. Like most of their staff, he is struggling, owning a 2-4 record and a 5.69 ERA so far this year.
Flexen has been even worse at home with a 1-2 record and a massive 6.49 ERA. This sets the table for the bullpen to be tested again, and the Blue Jays shouldn’t have trouble putting up some runs.
The Blue Jays sit at 25-29 and need to find a groove to climb out of the AL East basement. Sweeping the White Sox would be a good start as they’ve handled them easily in the first two games of the series.
Alek Manoah gets the ball today for them and he sports a 1-2 record with a 3.97 ERA. He has only pitched 22 innings this year, so those numbers can and will change as he gets more and more starts.
Overall, this is more about a short of the White Sox than anything else, and with a team this bad, it’s hard to not look at a run line sitting at -105. I’ll call for more of the same with the Blue Jays silencing the White Sox bats and doing enough to find another comfortable win today
MLB Expert Pick Today: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -108 at DraftKings
MLB weather report calls for a steady 7 mph breeze out with 70-degree temps and 61% humidity, all of which should help the ball carry further.
Let’s talk about Anderson first because you already know that Judge is an absolute game-breaker. Anderson, despite sporting a 2.52 ERA, owns a much worse 4.62 xERA, suggesting he has gotten quite lucky. His .255 xBA and .464 xSLG rank among the slate’s worst as well. Anderson has coughed up only seven home runs on 7.3 expected as well.
Importantly, opposite-handed batters like Judge are slashing .214/.279/.345 against the southpaw. On their face, those numbers aren’t great, but the 14 extra base hits and four home runs are intriguing, especially when you consider that the majority of Anderson’s starts have come against teams that rank below the league average in xwOBA.
If you aren’t sold on Judge, note that he is slashing .257/.490/.629 against southpaws with seven extra-base hits. The 16 walks are a concern, but with Anderson having walked only 15 righties all season I’m not too worried. Judge’s .295 xBA (92nd percentile) and .723 xSLG (100th) mean he can get multiple bases (+215 at FanDuel) pretty much at will.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases -119 at Caesars
@Loughy_D – Player Prop – Luis Gil O/U 17.5 Outs: Luis Gil has gone six-plus innings in five straight starts thanks to his ability to cut down on the walks. Through his first five outings, Gil was issuing free es at a 17.6 percent clip, but he’s cut that number to 8.8 percent over his last five.
That should work in his favor tonight against an Angels team that’s walking at the second-lowest rate in baseball (6.8%) since Mike Trout hit the shelf in late April. Gil has been excellent at limiting power and has a 0.72 WHIP over the last month (5 GS). I’m liking him to make this his sixth straight start with more than 17.5 outs.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Luis Gil Over 17.5 Outs -120 at FanDuel
@EricLindquist – Player Prop – David Fry O/U 0.5 RBIs: Coors Field is especially nice today with near 80-degree temps at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds blowing straight out.
Now, it’s not that the books don’t notice the MLB weather report as well, but to get this identical prop at plus-money for a second-straight day — and this time against a LHP — is a bit asinine to me.
Ty Blach is a bad LHP at that, sporting just an 8.6% K rate vs. RHH and a .364 xwOBA against everybody. Fry gets the protection of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor batting right in front of him. And oh, by the way, he’s slashing .425/.607/.825 against lefties this season, which doesn’t even make sense.
This bet is my favorite prop on the board for a second-straight day. It cashed with ease last night.
MLB Expert Pick Today: David Fry Over 0.5 RBIs +120 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
